Background The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. Methods Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King’s College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. Results A baseline model of ‘NEWS2 + age’ had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. Conclusions NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

ImportanceAn early minimally symptomatic phase is often followed by deterioration in patients with COVID-19 infection. This study shows that the addition of age and a minimal set of common blood tests taken in patients on admission to hospital significantly improves the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for risk-stratification of severe COVID disease.

Background COVID‐19 is associated with increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI). Risk factors and biomarkers linked to AKI have now been recognized by national guidelines in the United Kingdom. This analysis aims to validate and expand the comorbidities and biomarkers associated with the presence and severity of AKI in these patients. Methods Data were extracted via structured query language for patients with COVID‐19 at University Hospital Southampton between 1 March and 10 June 2020. Demographics, comorbidities, common biomarkers and AKI stage within 48 hours of admission, peak during admission and the last measurement prior to patient outcome (discharge or death) were collected and statistically analysed. Results Six hundred and thirty‐two COVID‐19 positive patients were admitted during this period; 34.2% had an AKI during their entire admission, 20.3% had AKI stage 1, 8.5% stage 2 and 5.4% stage 3. This was higher when compared with data from the same period in 2019. AKI carried an increased risk of death, 50.0% vs 21.1% (P = <.001). AKI stage was significantly associated with age over 65, diabetes, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, haematological malignancy, hypertension, respiratory rate, albumin, C‐reactive protein (CRP), d‐dimer, ferritin, high‐sensitivity troponin‐I, neutrophil count, total white cell counts, National Early Warning Score‐2 (NEWS‐2), Charlson comorbidity index and alanine‐aminotransferase. COVID‐19 specific treatment, including dexamethasone, reduced discharge creatinine. Conclusion COVID‐19 increases the risk of AKI and this kidney injury may be responsive to treatment. This analysis identified that AKI is associated with both previously described and new comorbidities and biomarkers.

Background: Disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), including methotrexate and azathioprine, are commonly used for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Blood test safety monitoring is mainly undertaken in primary care. Normal blood results are common. Aim: To determine the frequency and associations of persistently normal blood tests in RA patients prescribed methotrexate and IBD patients prescribed azathioprine. Design and setting: Two-year retrospective cohort study using pseudonymised primary care/laboratory data in Hampshire. Method: RA and IBD patients were identified with associated methotrexate (RA) and azathioprine (IBD) prescriptions. NICE-recommended tests and thresholds were applied and persistent normality defined as a) no abnormalities of any tests, and b) individually for alanine aminotransferase (ALT), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), white blood count (WBC), and neutrophils. Logistic regression was used to identify associations with test normality. Results: Of 702,265 adults, 7102 had RA and 8597 had IBD. 3001 (42.2%) RA patients were prescribed methotrexate and 1162 (13.5%) IBD patients prescribed azathioprine. Persistently normal tests occurred in 1585 (52.8%) of the RA/methotrexate and 657 (56.5%) of the IBD/azathioprine populations. In RA/methotrexate patients 585 (19.5%) had eGFR, 219 (7.3%) ALT, 217 (7.2%) WBC, and 202 (6.7%) neutrophil abnormalities. In IBD/azathioprine patients 138 (4.6%) had WBC, 88 (2.9%) eGFR, 72 (2.4%) ALT and 65 (2.2%) neutrophil abnormalities. Those least likely to have persistent test normality were older and/or had comorbidities. Conclusions: Persistent test normality is common in monitoring these DMARDs in primary care, with few hepatic or haematological abnormalities. More stratified monitoring approaches should be explored.

BackgroundGlucocorticosteroids (GC) are long-established, widely used agents for induction of remission in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Hyperglycaemia is a known complication of GC treatment with implications for morbidity and mortality. Published data on prevalence and risk factors for GC-induced hyperglycaemia in the IBD population are limited. We prospectively characterise this complication in our cohort, employing machine-learning methods to identify key predictors of risk.MethodsWe conducted a prospective observational study of IBD patients receiving intravenous hydrocortisone (IVH). Electronically triggered three times daily capillary blood glucose (CBG) monitoring was recorded alongside diabetes mellitus (DM) history, IBD biomarkers, nutritional and IBD clinical activity scores. Hyperglycaemia was defined as CBG ≥11.1 mmol/L and undiagnosed DM as glycated haemoglobin ≥48 mmol/mol. Random forest (RF) regression models were used to extract predictor-patterns present within the dataset.Results94 consecutive IBD patients treated with IVH were included. 60% (56/94) of the cohort recorded an episode of hyperglycaemia, including 57% (50/88) of those with no history of DM, of which 19% (17/88) and 5% (4/88) recorded a CBG ≥14 mmol/L and ≥20 mmol/L, respectively. The RF models identified increased C-reactive protein (CRP) followed by a longer IBD duration as leading risk predictors for significant hyperglycaemia.ConclusionHyperglycaemia is common in IBD patients treated with intravenous GC. Therefore, CBG monitoring should be included in routine clinical practice. Machine learning methods can identify key risk factors for clinical complications. Steroid-sparing treatment strategies may be considered for those IBD patients with higher admission CRP and greater disease duration, who appear to be at the greatest risk of hyperglycaemia.

Objectives Risk of hospital-acquired COVID-19 (HA-COVID-19) infection is increased by cohorting infected and non-infected patients together in assessment areas, whist awaiting laboratory PCR results. Molecular point-of-care tests (mPOCT) reduce time to results and improve patient flow but the impact on HA-COVID-19 is unknown. Methods In this pre and post implementation study patients were evaluated across two time periods: March 1 st to August 13 th 2020, prior to the introduction of mPOCT in medical admissions areas, and 14 th August 2020 to 1 st April 2021, after mPOCT introduction. The primary outcome was proportion of HA-COVID-19 infection among all COVID-19 positive patients. Secondary outcome measures included time to SARS-CoV-2 results, length of time spent in the medical assessment area and comparison of local, regional and national proportions of HA-COVID-19. Results 1988 patients were admitted through the acute medicine admission cohorting area and tested for SARS-CoV-2 prior to introducing mPOCT and 4640 afterwards. Median (IQR) time to SARS-CoV-2 result was 6.5 (2.1-17.9) hours prior to introducing mPOCT and 1.0 (0.8-1.3) hours afterwards (p<0.0001). Median (IQR) duration in the assessment cohort area was 12.0 (4.8-20.6) hours prior to introduction of POCT and 3.2 (2.0-5.6) hours afterwards (p<0.0001). The proportion of hospital-acquired COVID-19 cases was 108 (16.5%) of 654 prior to introducing mPOCT compared with 168 (9.4%) of 1782 afterwards, (HR 0.55, 95%CI 0.43-0.70; p<0.0001). In the period following the introduction of mPOCT up to 1 st April 2021 the median proportion of HA-COVID-19 was 13.6% (95%CI 8.2% - 18.9%) locally, compared with 43.8% (95%CI 37.8%-49.9%) for all acute NHS trusts regionally and 30.9% (95%CI 28.4%-33.5%) for all NHS trusts nationally, Conclusions Routine mPOCT for SARS-CoV-2 was associated with reduced time to results, time spent in admission cohort areas, and hospital-acquired COVID-19, compared to laboratory PCR.

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IntroductionPatients with suspected inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) referred from primary care often face diagnostic and treatment delays. This study aimed to compare a novel direct-access IBD endoscopy pathway with the traditional care model.MethodSingle centre real-world study analysing primary care referrals with suspected IBD. Group A: patients triaged to direct-access IBD endoscopy. Group B: patients undergoing traditional outpatient appointments before the availability of direct-access IBD endoscopy. Demographics, fecal calprotectin (FCP), C-reactive protein (CRP), disease activity score, endoscopy findings, treatment and follow-up were collected and statistically analysed. Ranked semantic analysis of IBD symptoms contained within referral letters was performed.ResultsReferral letters did not differ significantly in Groups A and B. Demographic data, FCP and CRP values were similar. Referral to treatment time (RTT) at the time of IBD endoscopy was reduced from 177 days (Group B) to 24 days (Group A) (p<0.0001). Diagnostic yield of IBD was 35.6% (Group B) versus 62.0% (Group A) (p=0.0003). 89.2% of patients underwent colonoscopy in Group B versus 46.4% in Group A. DNA rates were similar in both groups. The direct to IBD endoscopy pathway saved 100% of initial IBD consultant clinics with a 2.5-fold increase in IBD nurse-led follow-up.ConclusionOur novel pathway resulted in an 86% reduction in RTT with associated increased diagnostic yield while saving 100% of initial IBD consultant outpatient appointments. Replication in other trusts may improve patient experience and accelerate time to diagnosis/treatment while optimising the use of healthcare resources.