Forecasting Populations (FPOP) is a microsimulation model (MSM) that is the demographic core of an extensible modeling framework. The framework, with FPOP at its core, enables the geospatial projection of a population under purely demographic processes or under the additional influence of exogenous factors such as disease, policy changes and prevention programs, or environmental stressors. Empirically-derived transition probabilities of life events such as birth, death, marriage, divorce and migration, captured in lookup table format, drive the simulation. These transition probabilities can be modified dynamically by external user-defined functions or other external MSMs. The use of MSM structures and methodologies enables FPOP to portray the impact of heterogeneity in the geospatial dimension (e.g., distribution of environmental factors or distribution of intervention programs), as well as the social dimension (e.g., household or social network correlates), on the projections. POP is designed and structured
, a former senior epidemiologist at RTI International, has 37 years of experience in academia, government, and consulting studying the causes, genetics, and social impact on a number of diseases.
This book contains the following updates to chapter 4 since the original publication: a copyright notice for the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale has been added to page 67 and to Tables 4.1 and 4.3, and two references have been added, 28 and 29, which caused some renumbering of nearby references. In addition, the words "Mean at" have been removed from the Baseline and 3 Months columns in Table 4.3.The RTI Press mission is to disseminate information about RTI research, analytic tools, and technical expertise to a national and international audience. RTI Press publications are peer-reviewed by at least two independent substantive experts and one or more Press editors. RTI International is an independent, nonprofit research institute dedicated to improving the human condition. We combine scientific rigor and technical expertise in social and laboratory sciences, engineering, and international development to deliver solutions to the critical needs of clients worldwide. This publication is part of the RTI Press Book series.
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