No abstract

We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number $m$ of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such $m$-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even $m$ but no odd $m$. We further show that for $m\geq2$ all such $m$-local rules can be computed without knowledge of the normalizing constant of the distribution.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS971 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The spread of Huanglongbing through citrus groves is used as a case study for modeling an emerging epidemic in the presence of a control. Specifically, the spread of the disease is modeled as a susceptible-exposed-infectious-detected-removed epidemic, where the exposure and infectious times are not observed, detection times are censored, removal times are known, and the disease is spreading through a heterogeneous host population with trees of different age and susceptibility. We show that it is possible to characterize the disease transmission process under these conditions. Two innovations in our work are (i) accounting for control measures via time dependence of the infectious process and (ii) including seasonal and host age effects in the model of the latent period. By estimating parameters in different subregions of a large commercially cultivated orchard, we establish a temporal pattern of invasion, host age dependence of the dispersal parameters, and a close to linear relationship between primary and secondary infectious rates. The model can be used to simulate Huanglongbing epidemics to assess economic costs and potential benefits of putative control scenarios.

SummaryConstitutive expression of the immune checkpoint, PD-L1, inhibits anti-tumor immune responses in cancer, although the factors involved in PD-L1 regulation are poorly understood. Here we show that loss of global DNA methylation, particularly in intergenic regions and repeat elements, is associated with constitutive (PD-L1CON), versus inducible (PD-L1IND), PD-L1 expression in melanoma cell lines. We further show this is accompanied by transcriptomic up-regulation. De novo epigenetic regulators (e.g., DNMT3A) are strongly correlated with PD-L1 expression and methylome status. Accordingly, decitabine-mediated inhibition of global methylation in melanoma cells leads to increased PD-L1 expression. Moreover, viral mimicry and immune response genes are highly expressed in lymphocyte-negative plus PD-L1-positive melanomas, versus PD-L1-negative melanomas in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). In summary, using integrated genomic analysis we identified that global DNA methylation influences PD-L1 expression in melanoma, and hence melanoma's ability to evade anti-tumor immune responses. These results have implications for combining epigenetic therapy with immunotherapy.