Summary 1. Existing methods for identifying ecological community thresholds are designed for univariate indicators or multivariate dimension‐reduction of community structure. Most are insensitive to responses of individual taxa with low occurrence frequencies or highly variable abundances, properties of the vast majority of taxa in community data sets. We introduce Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis (TITAN) to detect changes in taxa distributions along an environmental gradient over space or time, and assess synchrony among taxa change points as evidence for community thresholds. 2. TITAN uses indicator species scores to integrate occurrence, abundance and directionality of taxa responses. It identifies the optimum value of a continuous variable, x, that partitions sample units while maximizing taxon‐specific scores. Indicator z scores standardize original scores relative to the mean and SD of permuted samples along x, thereby emphasizing the relative magnitude of change and increasing the contributions of taxa with low occurrence frequencies but high sensitivity to the gradient. TITAN distinguishes negative (z−) and positive (z+) taxa responses and tracks cumulative responses of declining [sum(z−)] and increasing [sum(z+)] taxa in the community. Bootstrapping is used to estimate indicator reliability and purity as well as uncertainty around the location of individual taxa and community change points. 3. Using two simulated data sets, TITAN correctly identified taxon and community thresholds in more than 99% of 500 unique versions of each simulation. In contrast, multivariate change‐point analysis did not distinguish directional taxa responses, resulting in much wider confidence intervals that in one instance failed to capture thresholds in 38% of the iterations. 4. Retrospective analysis of macroinvertebrate community response to a phosphorus gradient supported previous threshold estimates, although TITAN produced narrower confidence limits and revealed that several taxa declined at lower levels of phosphorus. Re‐analysis of macroinvertebrate responses to an urbanization gradient illustrated disparate change points for declining (0·81–3·3% urban land) and increasing (6·8–26·6%) taxa, whereas the published threshold estimate (20–30%) missed the declining‐taxa threshold because it could not distinguish their synchronous decline from the gradual increase in ubiquitous taxa. 5. Synthesis and applications. By deconstructing communities to assess synchrony of taxon‐specific change points, TITAN provides a sensitive and precise alternative to existing methods for assessing community thresholds. TITAN has tremendous potential to inform conservation of rare or threatened species, develop species sensitivity models, identify reference conditions and to support development of numerical regulatory criteria.

Watershed land cover is widely used as a predictor of stream‐ecosystem condition. However, numerous spatial factors can confound the interpretation of correlative analyses between land cover and stream indicators, particularly at broad spatial scales. We used a stream‐monitoring data set collected from the Coastal Plain of Maryland, USA to address analytical challenges presented by (1) collinearity of land‐cover class percentages, (2) spatial autocorrelation of land cover and stream data, (3) intercorrelations among and spatial autocorrelation within abiotic intermediaries that link land cover to stream biota, and (4) spatial arrangement of land cover within watersheds. We focused on two commonly measured stream indicators, nitrate‐nitrogen (NO3–N) and macroinvertebrate assemblages, to evaluate how different spatial considerations may influence results. Partial correlation analysis of land‐cover percentages revealed that simple correlations described relationships that could not be separated from the effects of other land‐cover classes or relationships that changed substantially when the influences of other land‐cover classes were taken into account. Partial Mantel tests showed that all land‐cover percentages were spatially autocorrelated, and this spatial phenomenon accounted for much of the variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages that could naively be attributed to certain classes (e.g., percentage cropland). We extended our use of partial Mantel tests into a path‐analytical framework and identified several independent pathways between percentage developed land and in‐stream measurements after factoring out spatial autocorrelation and other confounding variables; however, under these conditions, percentage cropland was only linked to nitrate‐N. Further analyses revealed that spatial arrangement of land cover, as measured by areal buffers and distance weighting, influenced the amount of developed land, resulting in a threshold change in macroinvertebrate‐assemblage composition. Moreover, distance‐weighted percentage cropland improved predictions of stream nitrate‐N concentrations in small watersheds, but not in medium or large ones. Collectively, this series of analyses clarified the magnitude and critical scales of effects of different land‐cover classes on Coastal Plain stream ecosystems and may serve as an analytical framework for other studies. Our results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on these important spatial considerations; otherwise, we risk obscuring the relationships between watershed land cover and the condition of stream ecosystems.

Efforts around the globe need legal and policy clarification

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ForestGEO is a network of scientists and long-term forest dynamics plots (FDPs) spanning the Earth's major forest types. ForestGEO's mission is to advance understanding of the diversity and dynamics of forests and to strengthen global capacity for forest science research. ForestGEO is unique among forest plot networks in its large-scale plot dimensions, censusing of all stems ≥1 cm in diameter, inclusion of tropical, temperate and boreal forests, and investigation of additional biotic (e.g., arthropods) and abiotic (e.g., soils) drivers, which together provide a holistic view of forest functioning. The 71 FDPs in 27 countries include approximately 7.33 million living trees and about 12,000 species, representing 20% of the world's known tree diversity. With >1300 published papers, ForestGEO researchers have made significant contributions in two fundamental areas: species coexistence and diversity, and ecosystem functioning. Specifically, defining the major biotic and abiotic controls on the distribution and coexistence of species and functional types and on variation in species' demography has led to improved understanding of how the multiple dimensions of forest diversity are structured across space and time and how this diversity relates to the processes controlling the role of forests in the Earth system. Nevertheless, knowledge gaps remain that impede our ability to predict how forest diversity and function will respond to climate change and other stressors. Meeting these global research challenges requires major advances in standardizing taxonomy of tropical species, resolving the main drivers of forest dynamics, and integrating plotbased ground and remote sensing observations to scale up estimates of forest diversity and function, coupled with improved predictive models. However, they cannot be met without greater financial commitment to sustain the long-term research of ForestGEO and other forest plot networks, greatly expanded scientific capacity across the world's forested nations, and increased collaboration and integration among research networks and disciplines addressing forest science.

Abstract. Novel physical and chemical conditions of many modern ecosystems increasingly diverge from the environments known to have existed at any time in the history of Earth. The loss of natural land to urbanization is one of the most prevalent drivers of novel environments in freshwaters. However, current understanding of aquatic community response to urbanization is based heavily upon aggregate indicators of community structure and linear or wedge-shaped community response models that challenge ecological community theory. We applied a new analytical method, threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN), to a stream biomonitoring data set from Maryland to explicitly evaluate linear community response models to urbanization that implicitly assume individual taxa decline or increase at incrementally different levels of urbanization. We used TITAN (1) to identify the location and magnitude of greatest change in the frequency and abundance of individual taxa and (2) to assess synchrony in the location of change points as evidence for stream community thresholds in response to percent impervious cover in catchments. We documented clear and synchronous threshold declines of 110 of 238 macroinvertebrate taxa in response to low levels of impervious cover. Approximately 80% of the declining taxa did so between ;0.5% and 2% impervious cover, whereas the last 20% declined sporadically from ;2% to 25% impervious cover. Synchrony of individual responses resulted in distinct community-level thresholds ranging from 0.68% (mountains), 1.28% (piedmont), and 0.96% (coastal plain) impervious cover. Upper limits (95% confidence intervals) of community thresholds were ,2% cover in all regions. Within distinct physiographic classes, higher-gradient, smaller catchments required less impervious cover than lower gradient, larger catchments to elicit community thresholds. Relatively few taxa showed positive responses to increasing impervious cover, and those that did gradually increased in frequency and abundance, approximating a linear cumulative distribution. The sharp, synchronous declines of numerous taxa established a consistent threshold response at exceptionally low levels of catchment urbanization, and uncertainty regarding the estimation of impervious cover from satellite data was mitigated by several corroborating lines of evidence. We suggest that threshold responses of communities to urban and other novel environmental gradients may be more prevalent than currently recognized.

Abstract. Watershed analyses of nutrient removal in riparian buffers have been limited by the geographic methods used to map buffers and by the statistical models used to test and quantify buffer effects on stream nutrient levels. We combined geographic methods that account for buffer prevalence along flow paths connecting croplands to streams with improved statistical models to test for buffer effects on stream nitrate concentrations from 321 tributary watersheds to the Chesapeake Bay, USA. We developed statistical models that predict stream nitrate concentration from watershed land cover and physiographic province. We used information theoretic methods (AIC c ) to compare models with and without buffer terms, and we demonstrate that models accounting for riparian buffers better explain stream nitrate concentrations than models using only land cover proportions. We analyzed the buffer model parameters to quantify differences within and among physiographic provinces in the potentials for nitrate loss from croplands and nitrate removal in buffers. On average, buffers in Coastal Plain study watersheds had a higher relative nitrate removal potential (95% of the inputs from cropland) than Piedmont buffers (35% of inputs). Buffers in Appalachian Mountain study watersheds were intermediate (retaining 39% of cropland inputs), but that percentage was uncertain. The absolute potential to reduce nitrate concentration was highest in the Piedmont study watersheds because of higher nitrate inputs from cropland. Model predictions for the study watersheds provided estimates of nitrate removals achieved with the existing cropland and buffer distributions. Compared to expected nitrate concentrations if buffers were removed, current buffers reduced average nitrate concentrations by 0.73 mg N/L (50% of their inputs from cropland) in the Coastal Plain study watersheds, 0.40 mg N/L (11%) in the Piedmont, and 0.08 mg N/L (5%) in the Appalachian Mountains. Restoration to close all buffer gaps downhill from croplands would further reduce nitrate concentrations by 0.66 mg N/L, 0.83 mg N/L, and 0.51 mg N/L, respectively, in the Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Appalachian Mountain study watersheds. Aggregate nitrate removal by riparian buffers was less than suggested by many studies of field-to-stream transects, but buffer nitrate removal is significant, and restoration could achieve substantial additional removal.

Dam removals with unmanaged sediment releases are good opportunities to learn about channel response to abruptly increased bed material supply. Understanding these events is important because they affect aquatic habitats and human uses of floodplains. A longstanding paradigm in geomorphology holds that response rates to landscape disturbance exponentially decay through time. However, a previous study of the Merrimack Village Dam (MVD) removal on the Souhegan River in New Hampshire, USA, showed that an exponential function poorly described the early geomorphic response. Erosion of impounded sediments there was two‐phased. We had an opportunity to quantitatively test the two‐phase response model proposed for MVD by extending the record there and comparing it with data from the Simkins Dam removal on the Patapsco River in Maryland, USA. The watershed sizes are the same order of magnitude (102 km2), and at both sites low‐head dams were removed (~3–4 m) and ~65 000 m3 of sand‐sized sediments were discharged to low‐gradient reaches. Analyzing four years of repeat morphometry and sediment surveys at the Simkins site, as well as continuous discharge and turbidity data, we observed the two‐phase erosion response described for MVD. In the early phase, approximately 50% of the impounded sediment at Simkins was eroded rapidly during modest flows. After incision to base level and widening, a second phase began when further erosion depended on floods large enough to go over bank and access impounded sediments more distant from the newly‐formed channel. Fitting functional forms to the data for both sites, we found that two‐phase exponential models with changing decay constants fit the erosion data better than single‐phase models. Valley width influences the two‐phase erosion responses upstream, but downstream responses appear more closely related to local gradient, sediment re‐supply from the upstream impoundments, and base flows. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.