No abstract

A wavenumber-frequency spectrum analysis is performed for all longitudes in the domain 15ЊS-15ЊN using a long (ϳ18 years) twice-daily record of satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), a good proxy for deep tropical convection. The broad nature of the spectrum is red in both zonal wavenumber and frequency. By removing an estimated background spectrum, numerous statistically significant spectral peaks are isolated. Some of the peaks correspond quite well to the dispersion relations of the equatorially trapped wave modes of shallow water theory with implied equivalent depths in the range of 12-50 m. Cross-spectrum analysis with the satellite-based microwave sounding unit deep-layer temperature data shows that these spectral peaks in the OLR are ''coupled'' with this dynamical field. The equivalent depths of the convectively coupled waves are shallower than those typical of equatorial waves uncoupled with convection. Such a small equivalent depth is thought to be a result of the interaction between convection and the dynamics. The convectively coupled equatorial waves identified correspond to the Kelvin, n ϭ 1 equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, n ϭ 0 eastward inertiogravity, n ϭ 1 westward inertio-gravity (WIG), and n ϭ 2 WIG waves. Additionally, the Madden-Julian oscillation and tropical depression-type disturbances are present in the OLR spectra. These latter two features are unlike the convectively coupled equatorial waves due to their location away from the equatorial wave dispersion curves in the wavenumber-frequency domain. Extraction of the different convectively coupled disturbances in the time-longitude domain is performed by filtering the OLR dataset for very specific zonal wavenumbers and frequencies. The geographical distribution of the variance of these filtered data gives further evidence that some of the spectral peaks correspond to particular equatorial wave modes. The results have implications for the cumulus parameterization problem, for the excitation of equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere, and for extended-range forecasting in the Tropics.

[1] Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) control a substantial fraction of tropical rainfall variability. Their horizontal structures and dispersion characteristics correspond to Matsuno's (1966) solutions of the shallow water equations on an equatorial beta plane, namely, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertiogravity waves. Because of moist processes, the tilted vertical structures of CCEWs are complex, and their scales do not correspond to that expected from the linear theory of dry waves. The dynamical structures and cloud morphology of CCEWs display a large degree of selfsimilarity over a surprisingly wide range of scales, with shallow convection at their leading edge, followed by deep convection and then stratiform precipitation, mirroring that of individual mesoscale convective complexes. CCEWs have broad impacts within the tropics, and their simulation in general circulation models is still problematic, although progress has been made using simpler models. A complete understanding of CCEWs remains a challenge in tropical meteorology.

This work identifies and documents a suite of large-scale drivers of rainfall variability in the Australian region. The key driver in terms of broad influence and impact on rainfall is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is related to rainfall over much of the continent at different times, particularly in the north and east, with the regions of influence shifting with the seasons. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is particularly important in the June–October period, which spans much of the wet season in the southwest and southeast where IOD has an influence. ENSO interacts with the IOD in this period such that their separate regions of influence cover the entire continent. Atmospheric blocking also becomes most important during this period and has an influence on rainfall across the southern half of the continent. The Madden–Julian oscillation can influence rainfall in different parts of the continent in different seasons, but its impact is strongest on the monsoonal rains in the north. The influence of the southern annular mode is mostly confined to the southwest and southeast of the continent. The patterns of rainfall relationship to each of the drivers exhibit substantial decadal variability, though the characteristic regions described above do not change markedly. The relationships between large-scale drivers and rainfall are robust to the selection of typical indices used to represent the drivers. In most regions the individual drivers account for less than 20% of monthly rainfall variability, though the drivers relate to a predictable component of this variability. The amount of rainfall variance explained by individual drivers is highest in eastern Australia and in spring, where it approaches 50% in association with ENSO and blocking.