Covariation between population-mean phenotypes and environmental variables, sometimes termed a "phenotype-environment association" (PEA), can result from phenotypic plasticity, genetic responses to natural selection, or both. PEAs can potentially provide information on the evolutionary dynamics of a particular set of populations, but this requires a full theoretical characterization of PEAs and their evolution. Here, we derive formulas for the expected PEA in a temporally fluctuating environment for a quantitative trait with a linear reaction norm. We compare several biologically relevant scenarios, including constant versus evolving plasticity, and the situation in which an environment affects both development and selection but at different time periods. We find that PEAs are determined not only by biological factors (e.g., magnitude of plasticity, genetic variation), but also environmental factors, such as the association between the environments of development and of selection, and in some cases the level of temporal autocorrelation. We also describe how a PEA can be used to estimate the relationship between an optimum phenotype and an environmental variable (i.e., the environmental sensitivity of selection), an important parameter for determining the extinction risk of populations experiencing environmental change. We illustrate this ability using published data on the predator-induced morphological responses of tadpoles to predation risk.
Predation is known to have both direct and indirect effects on nutrient cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and the general stress paradigm (GSP) has been promoted as a theory for describing predator-mediated indirect effects on nutrient cycling. The GSP predicts that prey exposed to predators will produce glucocorticosteroids, which have a host of physiological effects including gluconeogenesis, increased respiration, excretion of N and P, and increases in body C:N. We tested the nutrient predictions of the GSP using anuran larvae, which exhibit morphological defenses in addition to behavioral defenses for which the GSP was conceived. Genetically similar Hyla versicolor tadpoles were placed in mesocosms either in the presence or absence of a fed predator (Dytiscus verticalis), and after two weeks, tadpoles exposed to predators exhibited strong induced defenses with large, tubular bodies, larger tails, and reduced activity. Tadpole body %C and N:P increased with no change in C:N, which is contrary to expectations from the GSP. Statistical models suggested that changes in body morphology (e.g., tail muscle width) rather than behavioral defenses (i.e., reduced activity) were most likely responsible for predator-mediated differences in body stoichiometry. This study suggests that strong morphological defenses may overwhelm or counteract the nutrient predictions of the GSP.
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