In this paper we introduce a landslide prediction system for modelling the probabilities of landslides through time in Slovenia (Masprem). The system to forecast rainfall induced landslides is based on the landslide susceptibility map, landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and the precipitation forecasting model. Through the integrated parameters a detailed framework of the system, from conceptual to operational phases, is shown. Using fuzzy logic the landslide prediction is calculated. Potential landslide areas are forecasted on a national scale (1: 250,000) and on a local scale (1: 25,000) for five selected municipalities where the exposure of inhabitants, buildings and different type of infrastructure is displayed, twice daily. Due to different rainfall patterns that govern landslide occurrences, the system for landslide prediction considers two different rainfall scenarios (M1 and M2). The landslides predicted by the two models are compared with a landslide inventory to validate the outputs. In this study we highlight the rainfall event that lasted from the 9th to the 14th of September 2014 when abundant precipitation triggered over 800 slope failures around Slovenia and caused large material damage. Results show that antecedent rainfall plays an important role, according to the comparisons of the model (M1) where antecedent rainfall is not considered. Although in general the landslides areas are over-predicted and largely do not correspond to the landslide inventory, the overall performance indicates that the system is able to capture the crucial factors in determining the landslide location. Additional calibration of input parameters and the landslide inventory as well as improved spatially distributed rainfall forecast data can further enhance the model's prediction. IzvlečekV članku predstavljamo sistem za napovedovanje verjetnosti nastanka plazov v času v Sloveniji (Masprem). Sistem napovedovanja plazov, ki se bodo sprožili zaradi padavin, je osnovan na karti verjetnosti pojavljanja plazov, sprožilnih/mejnih količin padavin za posamezne geološke enote ter modelskih napovedi padavin. Preko vključenih parametrov je prikazan potek dela, od idejne do operativne stopnje. Pri izračunu napovedovanja plazov je bila uporabljena mehka logika. Območja nastanka možnih plazov se računajo dvakrat dnevno, in sicer na državni ravni (v merilu 1:250.000) ter na lokalni ravni (merilo 1:25.000), kjer se za pet izbranih občin računa izpostavljenost prebivalcev, objektov in infrastrukture. Zaradi različnega vpliva padavin na pojav plazov, sistem napovedovanja upošteva dva različna scenarija za padavine (M1 in M2). Plazovi, ki jih napovedujeta ta dva modela, so primerjani z plazovi v bazi plazov, z namenom preverjanja ujemanja in validacije. Posebej so obravnavane obsežne padavine med 9. in 14. septembrom 2014, ki so botrovale sprožiti preko 800 plazov po celotni Sloveniji ter povzročile veliko gmotno škodo. Rezultati modelov kažejo, da so predhodne padavine pomembne pri napovedovanju. Kar je razvidno iz rezu...
No abstract
Izvle~ekV okviru nacionalnega razvojno-raziskovalnega projekta MASPREM smo izdelali ocene in karte izpostavljenosti prebivalstva, objektov in infrastrukture zaradi pojavljanja zemeljskih plazov za pet slovenskih ob~in. Karte izpostavljenosti predstavljajo nadgradnjo kart verjetnosti pojavljanja zemeljskih plazov in temeljijo na podatkovni bazi zemeljskih plazov in terenskih raziskavah. Izdelane so bile za ob~ine Bovec, La{ko, Slovenj Gradec, Trbovlje in Železniki, ki so bile izbrane na podlagi njihove izpostavljenosti pojavom zemeljskih plazov. Osnovni podatek za izdelavo izpostavljenosti prebivalstva, objektov in infrastrukture so karte verjetnosti pojavljanja zemeljskih plazov v merilu 1 : 25.000, ki so bile izdelane v okviru projekta Geohazard 14. Analize izpostavljenosti elementov zaradi verjetnih pojavov zemeljskih plazov v izbranih ob~inah smo opravili z enostavno metodo prekrivanja v programskem orodju ArcMap. Stopnjo izpostavljenosti smo razdelili na {est kategorij, pri ~emer prva kategorija predstavlja zanemarljivo izpostavljenost, {esta pa zelo veliko izpostavljenost prebivalstva, objektov in infrastrukture pojavljanju zemeljskih plazov. Izdelane ocene izpostavljenosti predstavljajo dobro osnovo za nadaljnje dolo~anje ogroženosti zaradi plazenja in posledi~no bolj{e upravljanje z njihovimi posledicami. AbstractIn the frame of national research and innovation project MASPREM exposure maps of inhabitants, buildings and infrastructures to landslide occurrence were developed for five selected Slovenian municipalities. Maps represent an upgrade of the landslide susceptibility maps that were elaborated based on synthesis of analysis of event-based landslide inventory and field investigations. Exposure maps were developed for five municipalities: Bovec, La{ko, Slovenj Gradec, Trbovlje and Železniki. Exposure of inhabitants, construction and infrastructures to landslide occurrence was analysed using simple cross-analysis of landslide susceptibility maps at scale of 1:25,000 with locations of exposed elements. All analyses were conducted in the GIS with software tool ArcMap. Exposure maps, based on landslide susceptibility, were classified into six classes, with values ranging from one to six where class one represents areas with negligible exposure and class six areas with very high exposure to landslide occurrence. Exposure maps of selected municipalities provide the basis for further assessment of risk and consequentially better risk management. UvodV sklopu projekta MASPREM-Sistem zgodnjega opozarjanja za primer nevarnosti proženja zemeljskih plazov, financiranega s strani Ministrstva za obrambo (Uprava RS za za{~ito in re{evanje), smo izdelali karte in ocene izpostavljenosti prebivalstva, objektov ter infrastrukture zaradi pojavljanja zemeljskih plazov v merilu 1 : 25.000 za pet izbranih slovenskih ob~in, in sicer Bovec, La{ko, Slovenj Gradec, Trbovlje in Železniki (Šinigoj et al., 2013a, b).Karte verjetnosti pojavljanja zemeljskih plazov predstavljajo osnovo nadaljevalnim izra~unom nevarnosti (ang. hazard...
In the framework of European project eENVplus (hhtp://www.eenvplus.eu) the Geological Survey of Italy and Geological Survey of Slovenia in collaboration with some technical partners developed a pilot to perform several geohazard analyses in the cross-border area. Several web processing services to perform hazard probability map have been developed using open-source software and a javaScript client widget based on Cesium1.11 to manage the pilot has been designed as well. The final data have been prepared in INSPIRE compliance format to be in line with European legislation and directive and data are provided with an open licence.
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