Abstract. The Dutch Wadden Sea is a region of intertidal flats located between the chain of Wadden Islands and the Dutch mainland. We present numerical model results on the tidal prisms and residual flows through the tidal inlets and across one of the main watersheds. The model also provides insight into the pathways of fresh water originating from the two sluices at the Afsluitdijk (enclosure dike) through the use of passive tracers. All these results are obtained from threedimensional numerical simulations carried out with the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), at a horizontal resolution of 200 m and with terrain-following vertical coordinates with 30 layers. We concentrate on the years 2009-2010, for which we impose meteorological forcing, freshwater discharge, and boundary conditions for tidal forcing and storm surges. Results from the model show an excellent agreement with various observational data sets for sea surface height, temperature, salinity and transport through the Texel Inlet. The simulations show that although tides are responsible for a characteristic pattern of residual transport through the inlets, the wind imposes a large variability on its magnitude and can even invert its direction during strong southwesterly winds. Even though these events are sporadic, they play an important role in the flushing of the Dutch Wadden Sea, as they strongly diminish the flushing time of fresh water. In addition, wind can force a residual transport across the Terschelling watershed of the same order, if not larger, than through any of the main tidal inlets, despite the fact that its tidal prism is much smaller than any of those of the inlets. For the pathways of fresh water, the Terschelling watershed turns out to be more important than was previously thought, while the opposite holds for the Vlie Inlet.

A baroclinic three‐dimensional numerical model for the entire Wadden Sea of the German Bight in the southern North Sea is first assessed by comparison to field data for surface elevation, current velocity, temperature, and salinity at selected stations and then used to calculate fluxes of volume and salt inside the Wadden Sea and the exchange between the Wadden Sea and the adjacent North Sea through the major tidal inlets. The model is simulating the reference years 2009–2011. An overview of tidal prisms and residual volume fluxes of the main inlets and their variability is given. In addition, data from an intensive observational campaign in a tidal channel south of the island of Spiekeroog as well as satellite images and observations of sea surface properties from a ship of opportunity are used for the skill assessment. Finally, the intensity of estuarine overturning circulation and its variability in the tidal gullies are quantified and analyzed as function of gravitational and wind straining using various estimates including Total Exchange Flow (TEF). Regional differences between the gullies are assessed and drivers of the estuarine circulation are identified. For some inlets, the longitudinal buoyancy gradient dominates the exchange flow, for some others wind straining is more important. Also the intensity of tidal straining (scaled covariance of eddy viscosity and vertical shear) depends on buoyancy gradient and wind forcing in different ways, depending on local topography, orientation toward the main wind direction, and influence by freshwater run off inside or outside the tidal basin.

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Numerical study of a pair of spheres in an oscillating box filled with viscous fluid. Physical Review Fluids, 7(1), [014308].

In multiple tidal-inlet systems such as the Dutch Wadden Sea, the exchange of sediments between the coastal lagoon and the adjacent sea is controlled by the combined effect of the tides, wind-driven flows, and densitydriven flows. We investigate the variability of residual (tidally averaged) fluxes of suspended sediment with the three-dimensional numerical model GETM in relation to forcing mechanisms and model parameters. strongly throughout the year, mainly due to wind variability. The net balance between import and export of material is very sensitive to model parameters. Residual fluxes are sensitive to the geographical orientation and location of the inlets, and the effect of driving mechanisms on the residual fluxes and concentrations can be organized hierarchically, with wind forcing having the largest effect on concentration levels and variability.

We performed high-resolution numerical simulations of a turbulent flow driven by an oscillating uniform pressure gradient. The purpose was to investigate the influence of a reduced water depth h on the structure and dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer and the transition towards a fully turbulent flow. The study is motivated by applications of oscillatory flows, such as tides, in which h is of the same order of magnitude as the thickness of the turbulent boundary layer . It was found that, if h ∼ , the turbulent flow is characterized by (1) an increase of the magnitude of the surface velocity, (2) an increase in the magnitude of the wall shear stress and (3) a phase lead of the velocity profiles, all with respect to the reference case for which h ≫ . These results are in agreement with analytical solutions for a laminar oscillatory flow. Nevertheless, if the value of the Reynolds number is too small and h ∼ , the flow relaminarizes.

In multiple‐inlet coastal systems like the western Dutch Wadden Sea, the tides (and their interaction with the bathymetry), the fresh water discharge, and the wind drive a residual flow through the system. In the current paper, we study the effect of the wind on the residual volume transport through the inlets and the system as a whole on both the short (one tidal period) and long (seasonal or yearly) time scales. The results are based on realistic three‐dimensional baroclinic numerical simulations for the years 2009–2011. The length of the simulations (over 2000 tidal periods) allowed us to analyze a large variety of conditions and quantify the effect of wind on the residual volume transport. We found that each inlet has an anisotropic response to wind; i.e., the residual volume transport is much more sensitive to the wind from two inherent preferential directions than from any other directions. We quantify the effects of wind on the residual volume transport through the system and introduce the concept of the system's conductance for such wind driven residual transport. For the western Dutch Wadden Sea, the dominant wind direction in the region is close to the direction with the highest conductance and opposes the tidally driven residual volume transport. This translates in a large variability of the residual volume transport and a dominance of the wind in its long‐term characteristics in spite of the episodic nature of storms.

In this experimental and numerical study, we consider the role of inertial waves in the inverse energy cascade and the transfer of momentum in a rotating fluid. An oscillating torus generates two inertial-wave cones with their energy focusing at their apex. For high wave amplitudes, turbulence is generated locally around the focal point, resulting in angular momentum mixing and the generation of a columnar cyclonic vortex. The results suggest that nonlinear dynamics is essential for the wave induced momentum transport towards columnar vortices in rotating turbulence.