The increasing intensity of farming of meadows is supposed to be the major cause for strong declines of many meadow breeding birds. The whinchat, Saxicola rubetra, a Palaearctic migratory bird, is an indicator species of open grassland farmed at a low intensity. Originally widespread throughout Switzerland, it is now restricted to mountain and subalpine grassland. We document the changes in meadow cultivation in subalpine farmland from 1988 to 2002, and the breeding performance and density of the whinchat. We explored the impact of habitat degradation on the population dynamics of this meadow bird. The cultivation of hay meadows changed markedly within the 15 years: the onset of mowing was shifted forward by about 20 days, and farmers applied new techniques such as silage and irrigation. This shift was more pronounced in the favourable farmland in the valley bottom (Pradellas) than on the slopes (Vna`). The percentage of successful whinchat broods, ranging from 5% to 78% in different years, strongly depended on mowing date on both sites. In spite of earlier mowing, birds did not change their time schedule of breeding. Breeding success in Pradellas was too low to compensate for mortality (sink population), but because of immigration the number of breeding pairs did not decrease untill 2000. Population size may therefore be a misleading indicator of local population viability. Based on the breeding schedule of whinchats at different altitudes, we recommend mowing dates in agreement with the reproductive cycle of ground nesting meadow birds.

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Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain variation in reproductive performance and local recruitment of animals. While most studies have examined the influence of one or a few social and ecological factors on fitness traits, comprehensive analyses jointly testing the relative importance of each of many factors are rare. We investigated how a multitude of environmental and social conditions simultaneously affected reproductive performance and local recruitment of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio (L.). Specifically, we tested hypotheses relating to timing of breeding, parental quality, nest predation, nest site selection, territory quality, intraspecific density and weather. Using model selection procedures, predictions of each hypothesis were first analysed separately, before a full model was constructed including variables selected in the single-hypothesis tests. From 1988 to 1992, 50% of 332 first clutches produced at least one fledgling, while 38.7% of 111 replacement clutches were successful. Timing of breeding, nest site selection, predation pressure, territory quality and intraspecific density influenced nest success in the single-hypothesis tests. The full model revealed that nest success was negatively associated with laying date, intraspecific density, and year, while nest success increased with nest concealment. Number of fledglings per successful nest was only influenced by nest concealment: better-camouflaged nests produced more fledglings. Probability of local recruitment was related to timing of breeding, parental quality and territory quality in the single-hypothesis tests. The full models confirmed the important role of territory quality for recruitment probability. Our results suggest that reproductive performance, and particularly nest success, of the red-backed shrike is primarily affected by timing of breeding, nest site selection, and intraspecific density. This study highlights the importance of considering many factors at the same time, when trying to evaluate their relative contributions to fitness and life history evolution.

Studies of animal breeding dispersal have often focused on possible causes, whereas its adaptive significance has received less attention. Using an information-theoretic approach, we assessed predictions of four hypotheses relating to causes and consequences of breeding dispersal in a migratory passerine, the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. As predicted by the reproductive performance hypothesis, probability of breeding dispersal in females (though not in males) decreased with increasing annual average number of fledglings produced in the past year, but there was no association with conspecific reproductive performance in either sex. The site choice hypothesis, stating that individuals disperse to improve breeding site quality, received support in males only, as dispersal probability was positively associated to a measure indicating low territory quality. The social constraints hypothesis, referring to dispersal in relation to intraspecific interactions, received little support in either sex. The predation risk hypothesis was hardly supported either. Consequences of dispersal were marginal in both sexes because neither fledgling production in females, nor territory quality in males improved after dispersal. In addition, males settled on territories closer to the forest edge than those occupied predispersal, which is opposite to the prediction of the predation risk hypothesis. We conclude that own reproductive success was the major factor determining dispersal behavior in females, whereas territory quality and possibly predation risk were most important in males. Overall, breeding dispersal appeared not to be adaptive in this dense population inhabiting an optimal habitat.

Summary 1.Populations of plants and animals typically fluctuate because of the combined effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes. The study of these processes is complicated by the fact that population sizes are typically not known exactly, because population counts are subject to sampling variance. Although the existence of sampling variance is broadly acknowledged, relatively few studies on time-series data have accounted for it, which can result in wrong inferences about population processes. 2. To increase our understanding of population dynamics, we analysed time series from six Central European populations of the migratory red-backed shrike Lanius collurio by simultaneously assessing the strength of density dependence, process and sampling variance. In addition, we evaluated hypotheses predicting effects of factors presumed to operate on the breeding grounds, at stopover sites in eastern Africa during fall and spring migration and in the wintering grounds in southern Africa. We used both simple and state-space formulations of the Gompertz equation to model population size. 3. Across populations and modelling approaches, we found consistent evidence for negative density-dependent population regulation. Further, process variance contributed substantially to variation in population size, while sampling variance did not. Environmental conditions in eastern and southern Africa appear to influence breeding population size, as rainfall in the Sahel during fall migration and in the south African wintering areas were positively related to population size in the following spring in four of six populations. In contrast, environmental conditions in the breeding grounds were not related to population size. 4. Our findings suggest negative density-dependent regulation of red-backed shrike breeding populations and are consistent with the long-standing hypothesis that conditions in the African staging and wintering areas influence population numbers of species breeding in Europe. 5. This study highlights the importance of jointly investigating density-dependent and densityindependent processes to improve our understanding of factors influencing population fluctuations in space and time.

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European farmland birds show massive large‐scale population declines due to agricultural intensification. Long‐distance migrants are particularly affected as their populations appear to undergo larger declines than those of residents and short‐distance migrants, raising the question about the impact of non‐breeding environmental conditions and their potential impact on annual survival. The whinchat Saxicola rubetra, an Afro‐Palaearctic migrant inhabiting open habitats, has strongly declined over the last decades. Most of the conservation effort for this species has focused on improving the breeding success in Europe, but it remains unclear whether habitat changes in non‐breeding areas may also have contributed to the population declines through a decrease in adult survival. We studied survival of whinchats from eight breeding populations across Europe by analysing capture–recapture data. We found that apparent survival was consistently higher in males than in females and higher in successful than in failed breeders independently of the sex. True adult survival may, however, hardly differ between sexes being about 0.5 and 0.6 and a simple population model suggests true juvenile survival to be between 0.2 and 0.35. Adult survival was unrelated to population trends suggesting that the main demographic problem of the whinchats is likely insufficient reproduction, a feature that is shared with other declining grassland specialists. Finally, in line with results on other migratory farmland species, our study suggests that conservation activities for whinchats should in first place focus on Europe.

Senescence has been studied since a long time by theoreticians in ecology and evolution, but empirical support in natural population has only recently been accumulating. One of the current challenges is the investigation of senescence of multiple fitness components and the study of differences between sexes. Until now, studies have been more frequently conducted on females than on males and rather in long‐lived than in short‐lived species. To reach a more fundamental understanding of the evolution of senescence, it is critical to investigate age‐specific survival and reproduction performance in both sexes and in a large range of species with contrasting life histories. In this study, we present results on patterns of age‐specific and sex‐specific variation in survival and reproduction in the whinchat Saxicola rubetra, a short‐lived passerine. We compiled individual‐based long‐term datasets from seven populations that were jointly analyzed within a Bayesian modeling framework. We found evidence for senescence in survival with a continuous decline after the age of 1 year, but no evidence of reproductive senescence. Furthermore, we found no clear evidence for sex effects on these patterns. We discuss these results in light of previous studies documenting senescence in short‐lived birds. We note that most of them have been conducted in populations breeding in nest boxes, and we question the potential effect of the nest boxes on the shape of age‐reproductive trajectories.