Previous research on the diffusion of solar PV in Africa has mainly focused on solar home systems (SHS) in individual countries and thus overlooked developments in other PV market segments that have recently emerged. In contrast this paper adopts a regional perspective by reviewing developments in supportive policies, donor programs and diffusion status in all PV market segments in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, as well as identifying the key factors put forward in the literature to explain differences in the diffusion of SHS in these three countries. The paper finds two emerging trends: (i) a movement from donor and government-based support to market-driven diffusion of solar PV; and (ii) a transition from small-scale, off-grid systems towards mini-grids and large-scale, grid-connected solar power plants. The paper points out three generic factors that have contributed to encouraging SHS diffusion in all three countries: (i) the decline in world market prices for PV modules; (ii) the prolonged support from international donors; and (iii) conducive framework conditions provided by national governments. The paper also identifies five key factors that have been elaborated in the literature to explain the higher level of SHS diffusion in Kenya compared to Tanzania and Uganda: (i) a growing middle-class; (ii) geographical conditions; (iii) local subcomponent suppliers; (iv) local champions; and (v) business culture. Finally, the paper discusses the lack of attention in the literature given to analysing the amount, nature and timing of donor and government support across countries, processes of learning and upgrading in local PV industries and the interaction between the different explanatory factors.

The goal of providing universal energy access to all by 2030 under the UN-led SE4ALL initiative calls for new and innovative solutions to rural electrification and is fuelling the recent interest in mini-grids. Mini-grid solutions are emerging as a third alternative to rural electrification, coming between the option of largescale grid extension and pico-scale stand-alone solutions like solar home systems or solar lanterns. International expectations of mini-grids are high, with the International Energy Agency suggesting that they will play a significant role in reaching the goal of universal access. Based on a detailed review of past, ongoing, and planned mini-grids in East Africa, this study seeks to deconstructs the popular notion of mini-grids for rural electrification in East Africa. The study reveals that so far activities carried out under the heading of mini-grids to a large extent consist of the hybridization of existing utility-owned electricity systems for medium-size towns located far from the grid, which does not necessarily contribute to rural electrification. However, limited but increasing activity is identified regarding the use of mini-grids to bring electricity to rural villages and smaller rural towns. This is of specific interest because it is for this type of mini-grid that the main challenges are to be found with respect to identifying and testing adequate financing, ownership, and business models. Based on the trajectories identified for mini-grids for rural electrification and the challenges identified in the literature, the study concludes by proposing three avenues for further research.

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This paper investigates how African governments are considering supporting and promoting the diffusion of solar PV. This issue is explored by examining so-called 'technology action plans', which were main outputs of the Technology Needs Assessment project implemented in ten African countries from 2010 to 2013. The paper provides a review of three distinct but characteristic trajectories for PV market development in Kenya (private-led market for solar home systems), Morocco (utility-led fee-for service model) and Rwanda (donor-led market for institutional systems). The paper finds that governments' strategies to promoting solar PV are moving from isolated projects towards frameworks for market development and that there are high expectations to upgrading in the PV value chain through local assembly of panels and local production of other system elements. Commonly identified measures include support to: local production; financing schemes; tax exemptions; establishment and reinforcement of standards; technical training; and research and development.

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As of today, access to electricity is still unavailable to 1.1 billion people in the world, half of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections suggest that this share will increase, leaving millions of people with limited development prospects. Kenya's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the 2015 Paris Agreement includes a commitment to expand power supply, and in doing so, provide all its citizens with access to electricity. Access in rural areas, where the majority remains unconnected, is planned to be reached through different technologies. These include mini-grids, which are expected to bring multiple sustainable development benefits. However, comprehensive studies looking at synergies and trade-offs between environmental, social, and economic impacts of mini-grids are scarce. Analyzing the expected contribution of mini-grids to targets such as the NDC and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can provide evidence-based decision-support to policymakers, thus promoting well-designed and sustainable rural electrification policies. By using the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) Sustainable Development Methodology, this paper goes beyond the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts resulting from access to modern electricity, analyzing also other environmental and socioeconomic implications of 146 solar PV mini grids under construction in Kenya. Using specific targets from the SDG framework, the paper presents a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of the extent to which mini-grids can contribute to the implementation of Kenya's NDC and to sustainable development priorities. Key policy insights • The deployment of mini-grids is expected to lower the GHG emissions of the villages currently without access to electricity by 71%. • This contributes to 0.4% of the current NDC target for the power sector, in line with the capacity of the systems analyzed. • This action is expected to also bring about positive impacts on electricity access, indoor air quality, healthcare, education and economic activities, which are found to contribute to 16 SDG targets. • Apart from the economic investment required, possible negative impacts are associated with the electronic waste generated at the end-of-life of the mini-grids. • Accounting for sustainable development impacts of policies can increase support among policymakers for climate action, and ultimately raise ambition.

Motivation: Research on global value chains (GVCs) has tended to overlook the agency of the local firm when it comes to processes of upgrading. Purpose: We attend to this knowledge gap by exploring the relationship between the business strategies and upgrading pathways of 14 firms operating in the value chain for solar systems in Kenya. Methods and approach: The article draws on in-depth fieldwork carried out in Kenya, which included 30 semi-structured interviews with firm representatives and industry informants. Findings: We find that local firms pursue different upgrading pathways in order to be competitive and we show the underlying business strategies whereby firms pursue different upgrading pathways. Policy implications: The article contributes to overcoming the prevailing black-boxing in the GVC literature on local firms undergoing processes of upgrading.

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