Multistage risk-averse optimal control problems with nested conditional risk mappings are gaining popularity in various application domains. Risk-averse formulations interpolate between the classical expectation-based stochastic and minimax optimal control. This way, risk-averse problems aim at hedging against extreme low-probability events without being overly conservative. At the same time, risk-based constraints may be employed either as surrogates for chance (probabilistic) constraints or as a robustification of expectationbased constraints. Such multistage problems, however, have been identified as particularly hard to solve. We propose a decomposition method for such nested problems that allows us to solve them via efficient numerical optimization methods. Alongside, we propose a new form of risk constraints which accounts for the propagation of uncertainty in time. † P. Sopasakis is with Queen's University Belfast,

We present a data-driven model predictive control scheme for chance-constrained Markovian switching systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show that under sufficient decrease of the confidence levels, the resulting MPC scheme renders the closed-loop system mean-square stable with respect to the true-but-unknown distributions, while remaining less conservative than a fully robust approach.

The coordination of highly automated vehicles (or agents) in road intersections is an inherently nonconvex and challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a distributed motion planning scheme under reasonable vehicleto-vehicle communication requirements. Each agent solves a nonlinear model predictive control problem in real time and transmits its planned trajectory to other agents, which may have conflicting objectives. The problem formulation is augmented with conditional constraints that enable the agents to decide whether to wait at a stopping line, if safe crossing is not possible. The involved nonconvex problems are solved very efficiently using the proximal averaged Newton method for optimal control (PANOC). We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in a realistic intersection crossing scenario. A. Katriniok is with Ford Research

We consider the problem of designing control laws for stochastic jump linear systems where the disturbances are drawn randomly from a finite sample space according to an unknown distribution, which is estimated from a finite sample of i.i.d. observations. We adopt a distributionally robust approach to compute a mean-square stabilizing feedback gain with a given probability. The larger the sample size, the less conservative the controller, yet our methodology gives stability guarantees with high probability, for any number of samples. Using tools from statistical learning theory, we estimate confidence regions for the unknown probability distributions (ambiguity sets) which have the shape of total variation balls centered around the empirical distribution. We use these confidence regions in the design of appropriate distributionally robust controllers and show that the associated stability conditions can be cast as a tractable linear matrix inequality (LMI) by using conjugate duality. The resulting design procedure scales gracefully with the size of the probability space and the system dimensions. Through a numerical example, we illustrate the superior sample complexity of the proposed methodology over the stochastic approach. † M. Schuurmans and P. Patrinos are with the Department of Electrical Engineering (ESAT-STADIUS), KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.

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We present a novel class of ambiguity sets for distributionally robust optimization (DRO). These ambiguity sets, called cost-aware ambiguity sets, are defined as halfspaces which depend on the cost function evaluated at an independent estimate of the optimal solution, thus excluding only those distributions that are expected to have significant impact on the obtained worst-case cost. We show that the resulting DRO method provides both a high-confidence upper bound and a consistent estimator of the out-of-sample expected cost, and demonstrate empirically that it results in less conservative solutions compared to divergence-based ambiguity sets.

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We present a data-driven method for solving the linear quadratic regulator problem for systems with multiplicative disturbances, the distribution of which is only known through sample estimates. We adopt a distributionally robust approach to cast the controller synthesis problem as semidefinite programs. Using results from high dimensional statistics, the proposed methodology ensures that their solution provides mean-square stabilizing controllers with high probability even for low sample sizes. As sample size increases the closed-loop cost approaches that of the optimal controller produced when the distribution is known. We demonstrate the practical applicability and performance of the method through a numerical experiment.