Aims The aims of this paper were to investigate the analytical performance of the nine prognostic scales commonly used in heart failure (HF), in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), and to develop a unique prognostic model tailored to DCM patients. Methods and results The hospital and outpatient records of 406 DCM patients were retrospectively analysed. The information on patient status was gathered after 48.2 ± 32.0 months. Tests were carried out to ascertain the prognostic accuracy in DCM using some of the most frequently applied HF prognostic scales (Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure, Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity, Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure, Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure, Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure, MUerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca, Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure, Seattle Heart Failure Model) and one dedicated to DCM, that of Miura et al. At follow-up, 70 DCM patients (17.2%) died. Most analysed scores substantially overestimated the mortality risk, especially in survivors. The prognostic accuracy of the scales were suboptimal, varying between 60% and 80%, with the best performance from Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure and Seattle Heart Failure Model for 1-5 year mortality [areas under the receiver operating curve 0.792-0.890 (95% confidence interval 0.725-0.918) and 0.764-0.808 (95% confidence interval 0.682-0.934), respectively].Based on our accumulated data, a self-developed DCM prognostic model was constructed. The model consists of age, gender, body mass index, symptoms duration, New York Heart Association class, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke, abnormal liver function, dyslipidaemia, left bundle branch block, left ventricle end-diastolic diameter, ejection fraction, N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and pharmacological and resynchronisation therapy. This newly created prognostic model outperformed the analysed HF scales. Conclusions An analysis of various HF prognostic models found them to be suboptimal for DCM patients. A self-developed DCM prognostic model showed improved performance over the nine other models studied. However, further validation of the prognostic model in different DCM populations is required.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients with heart failure (HF) contributes to a poorer prognosis. However, in those with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), the true prevalence and role of PH is unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the profile of DCM patients at various levels of PH risk, determined via echocardiography, and its impact on outcomes. The 502 DCM in- and out-patient records were retrospectively analyzed. Information on patient status was gathered after 45.9 ± 31.3 months. Patients were divided into 3 PH-risk groups based on results from echocardiography measurements: low (L, n = 239, 47.6%), intermediate (I, n = 153, 30.5%), and high (H, n = 110, 21.9%). Symptom duration, atrial fibrillation, ventricular tachyarrhythmia, ejection fraction, right atrial area, and moderate or severe mitral regurgitation were found to be independently associated with PH risk. During the follow-up period, 83 (16.5%) DCM patients died: 29 (12.1%) in L, 31 (20.3%) in I, and 23 (20.9%) in H. L-patients had a significantly lower risk of all-cause death (L to H: HR 0.55 (95%CI 0.32–0.98), p = 0.01), while no differences in prognosis were found between I and H. In conclusion, over one in five DCM patients had a high PH risk, and low PH risk was associated with better prognoses.

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). However, the epidemiology as well as clinical and prognostic significance of AF in DCM are poorly defined. AIMS We aimed to assess the impact and prognostic value of AF in DCM as well as to investigate the concept of AF-induced DCM. METHODS Hospital records of 285 patients with DCM from 2012 to 2018 with follow-up were analyzed. RESULTS Atrial fibrillation was present in 89 patients (31%). They were older, more frequently male, had higher body mass index, New York Heart Association class, heart rate (HR), creatinine levels, and larger atria (all P <0.05) than patients without AF. During follow-up (mean [SD], 35 [24] months), death occurred in 20 of the 82 available patients with AF and 22 of the 188 patients without AF (24% and 12%, respectively; P = 0.007). Atrial fibrillation was independently associated with a worse outcome (hazard ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3) and was found to be the major cause of DCM in 21 patients (24%). The diagnostic accuracy of the most optimal predictive model for AF-induced DCM was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.903-0.967). Despite numerical differences, survival was similar in DCM patients with and without AF (P = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Almost one-third of patients with DCM had AF. Most of the parameters analyzed differed between patients with and without AF, and AF was found to be an independent prognostic factor of DCM. One-fourth of patients with DCM and AF met the diagnostic criteria for AF-induced DCM.