Abstract. We present a full probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel -one in the near field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip rate and M max , among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty -modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertaintyare treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence on the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the current version of the building code, grossly underestimates the hazard, by approximately 40 % in short return periods (e.g. 10 % in 50 years) and by as much as 150 % in long return periods (e.g. 10E −5 ). The analysis shows that this underestimation is most probably due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.
We present a full PSHA sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel -one in the near-field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters 10 for the main seismic sources, such as slip-rate and M max , among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the GroundMotion Prediction Equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty -modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence of the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the most current version of the building code grossly 15 underestimates the hazard, due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis. IntroductionIsrael lies on an active plate boundary -with the Dead-Sea Transform (DST) separating the African plate on the west from the Arabian plate on the east. According to the historical, biblical, and archaeological records (Ben-Menahem, 1991), devastating earthquakes with recurrence intervals of approximately 100 years are responsible for the repeated destruction of cultural centres 20 in this region. While Israel benefits from a relative wealth of historical, geological and paleoseismological dataset that can supports Seismic Hazard Assessments (SHA), its instrumental catalogue is poor due to the combination of its young age, sparse spatial coverage, and moderate seismicity rates. Therefore, the current state-of-practice for conducting seismic hazard analysis in Israel suffers from some significant knowledge gaps and methodological shortcomings, which may lead to erroneous hazard estimations. 25The purpose of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated hazard to the underlying uncertainty in the source and path representations. By that, we intend to contribute to regional SHAs by highlighting, quantifying and ranking the main sources of uncertainties in the calculations. We conduct the analysis for two sites in southern Israel -site #1 is in close proximity to the DST (~20km) while site #2 is farther away (~70km). Specifically, we will explore the sensitivity to: a) Alternative seismotectonic models and alternative representations of the DST faults 30 b) Segmentation of the main seismic sources c) Uncertainty in input parameters, such as slip-rate, activity-rate, and maximum magnitude d) Alternative Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi
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