Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods:A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in 8 countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results:If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as result of a shrinking population.However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as result of an aging/increasing population.Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed.If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and 4 NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.Lay summary: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can lead to advanced liver disease, and are occurring in increasing numbers in tandem with epidemics of obesity and diabetes. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with NAFLD and NASH will change over time. Results suggest increasing numbers of cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. 5 BACKGROUNDNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of liver disease globally [1][2][3]. This condition is characterized by excess liver fat in the absence of other causes such as alcohol consumption [4,5]. Obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are consistently identified as the most important risk factors for NAFLD [4,6].In order to classify the population, NAFLD may be divided into two groups: NAFL (steatosis only) or NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis), where steatosis is accompanied by inflammation and ballooning. NASH frequently progresses to liver fibrosis [7] that is the main risk factor for liver-related mortality [8]. Odds of progression to advanced liver disease, including hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are higher among those with NASH compared to those with NAFL [7]. Increasing age, obesity, DM and the presence of NASH have been consistently identified as risk factors for progression to cirrhosis [6,9].There is a...
Objective: Transient elastography (TE) is gaining popularity as a non-invasive method for predicting liver fibrosis, but intraobserver and interobserver agreement and factors influencing TE reproducibility have not been adequately assessed. This study investigated these aspects. Setting: Tertiary referral liver unit. Patients: Over a 4-month period, 200 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with varying aetiology consecutively underwent TE and liver biopsy. Interventions: TE was performed twice by two different operators either concomitantly or within 3 days of the bioptic procedure (METAVIR classification). Main outcome measures: Intraobserver and interobserver agreement were analysed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and correlated with different patient-related and liver disease-related covariates. Results: 800 TE examinations were performed, with an indeterminate result rate of 2.4%. The overall interobserver agreement ICC was 0.98 (95% CI 0.977 to 0.987). Increased body mass index (.25 kg/m 2 ), steatosis, and low staging grades (fibrosis (F) stage ,2) were significantly associated with reduced ICC (p,0.05). Intraobserver agreement ICC was 0.98 for both raters. Using receiver operating characteristic curves, three diagnostic TE thresholds were identified: .7.9 kPa for F>2, .10.3 for F>3 and .11.9 for F = 4. TE values assessed by the two raters fell within the same cut-off of fibrosis in 88% of the cases for F>2, in 92% for F>3 and 91% for F = 4. Conclusions: TE is a highly reproducible and user-friendly technique for assessing liver fibrosis in patients with CLD. However, because TE reproducibility is significantly reduced (p,0.05) in patients with steatosis, increased BMI and lower degrees of hepatic fibrosis, caution is warranted in the clinical use of TE as a surrogate for liver biopsy.
A specific assay has been developed for a blood-borne non-A, non-B hepatitis (NANBH) virus in which a polypeptide synthesized in recombinant yeast clones of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is used to capture circulating viral antibodies. HCV antibodies were detected in six of seven human sera that were shown previously to transmit NANBH to chimpanzees. Assays of ten blood transfusions in the United States that resulted in chronic NANBH revealed that there was at least one positive blood donor in nine of these cases and that all ten recipients seroconverted during their illnesses. About 80 percent of chronic, post-transfusion NANBH (PT-NANBH) patients from Italy and Japan had circulating HCV antibody; a much lower frequency (15 percent) was observed in acute, resolving infections. In addition, 58 percent of NANBH patients from the United States with no identifiable source of parenteral exposure to the virus were also positive for HCV antibody. These data indicate that HCV is a major cause of NANBH throughout the world.
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