Personalized medicine (PM) aims to establish a new approach in clinical decision-making, based upon a patient's individual profile in order to tailor treatment to each patient's characteristics. Although this has become a focus of the discussion also in the psychiatric field, with evidence of its high potential coming from several proof-of-concept studies, nearly no tools have been developed by now that are ready to be applied in clinical practice. In this paper, we discuss recent technological advances that can make a shift toward a clinical application of the PM paradigm. We focus specifically on those technologies that allow both the collection of massive as much as real-time data, i.e., electronic medical records and smart wearable devices, and to achieve relevant predictions using these data, i.e. the application of machine learning techniques.

Our algorithm shows very high cross-validated performances that outperform the vast majority of the currently available algorithms, and all those which use only non-invasive and effectively assessable predictors. Further testing and optimization in independent samples will warrant its application in both clinical practice and clinical trials.

Background: Despite the increasing availability in brain health related data, clinically translatable methods to predict the conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still lacking. Although MCI typically precedes AD, only a fraction of 20–40% of MCI individuals will progress to dementia within 3 years following the initial diagnosis. As currently available and emerging therapies likely have the greatest impact when provided at the earliest disease stage, the prompt identification of subjects at high risk for conversion to AD is of great importance in the fight against this disease. In this work, we propose a highly predictive machine learning algorithm, based only on non-invasively and easily in-the-clinic collectable predictors, to identify MCI subjects at risk for conversion to AD. Methods: The algorithm was developed using the open dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), employing a sample of 550 MCI subjects whose diagnostic follow-up is available for at least 3 years after the baseline assessment. A restricted set of information regarding sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, neuropsychological test scores was used as predictors and several different supervised machine learning algorithms were developed and ensembled in final algorithm. A site-independent stratified train/test split protocol was used to provide an estimate of the generalized performance of the algorithm. Results: The final algorithm demonstrated an AUROC of 0.88, sensitivity of 77.7%, and a specificity of 79.9% on excluded test data. The specificity of the algorithm was 40.2% for 100% sensitivity. Conclusions: The algorithm we developed achieved sound and high prognostic performance to predict AD conversion using easily clinically derived information that makes the algorithm easy to be translated into practice. This indicates beneficial application to improve recruitment in clinical trials and to more selectively prescribe new and newly emerging early interventions to high AD risk patients.

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Background:In a previous study, we developed a highly performant and clinically-translatable machine learning algorithm for a prediction of three-year conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in subjects with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Pre-mild Cognitive Impairment. Further tests are necessary to demonstrate its accuracy when applied to subjects not used in the original training process. In this study, we aimed to provide preliminary evidence of this via a transfer learning approach.Methods:We initially employed the same baseline information (i.e. clinical and neuropsychological test scores, cardiovascular risk indexes, and a visual rating scale for brain atrophy) and the same machine learning technique (support vector machine with radial-basis function kernel) used in our previous study to retrain the algorithm to discriminate between participants with AD (n = 75) and normal cognition (n = 197). Then, the algorithm was applied to perform the original task of predicting the three-year conversion to AD in the sample of 61 MCI subjects that we used in the previous study.Results:Even after the retraining, the algorithm demonstrated a significant predictive performance in the MCI sample (AUC = 0.821, 95% CI bootstrap = 0.705–0.912, best balanced accuracy = 0.779, sensitivity = 0.852, specificity = 0.706).Conclusions:These results provide a first indirect evidence that our original algorithm can also perform relevant generalized predictions when applied to new MCI individuals. This motivates future efforts to bring the algorithm to sufficient levels of optimization and trustworthiness that will allow its application in both clinical and research settings.