The potential impacts of GOES‐R satellite radiances on tropical cyclone analysis and prediction were examined through ensemble correlations between simulated infrared brightness temperatures and various model state variables. The impacts of assimilating GOES‐R all‐sky infrared brightness temperatures on tropical cyclone analysis and prediction were further demonstrated through a series of convection‐permitting observing system simulation experiments using an ensemble Kalman filter under both perfect and imperfect model scenarios. Assimilation of the high temporal and spatial resolution infrared radiances not only constrained well the thermodynamic variables, including temperature, moisture, and hydrometeors, but also considerably reduced analysis and forecast errors in the wind fields. The potential of all‐sky radiances is further demonstrated through an additional proof‐of‐concept experiment assimilating real‐data infrared brightness temperatures from GOES 13 satellite which was operational in an enhanced scanning mode during Hurricane Karl (2010).

An empirical flow-dependent adaptive observation error inflation (AOEI) method is proposed for assimilating all-sky satellite brightness temperatures through observing system simulation experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter. The AOEI method adaptively inflates the observation error when the absolute difference (innovation) between the observed and simulated brightness temperatures is greater than the square root of the combined variance of the uninflated observational error variance and ensemble-estimated background error variance. This adaptive method is designed to limit erroneous analysis increments where there are large representativeness errors, as is often the case for cloudy-affected radiances, even if the forecast model and the observation operator (the radiative transfer model) are perfect. The promising performance of this newly proposed AOEI method is demonstrated through observing system simulation experiments assimilating all-sky brightness temperatures from GOES-R (now GOES-16) in comparison with experiments using an alternative empirical observation error inflation method proposed by Geer and Bauer. It is found that both inflation methods perform similarly in the accuracy of the analysis and in the containment of potential representativeness errors; both outperform experiments using a constant observation error without inflation. Besides being easier to implement, the empirical AOEI method proposed here also shows some advantage over the Geer–Bauer method in better updating variables at large scales. Large representative errors are likely to be compounded by unavoidable uncertainties in the forecast system and/or nonlinear observation operator (as for the radiative transfer model), in particular in the areas of moist processes, as will be the case for real-data cloudy radiances, which will be further investigated in future studies.

This study explores the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared satellite radiances from Himawari-8, a new-generation geostationary satellite that shares similar remote sensing technology with the U.S. geostationary satellite GOES-16, for convection-permitting initialization and prediction of tropical cyclones with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This case studies the rapid intensification stages of Supertyphoon Soudelor (2015), one of the most intense tropical cyclones ever observed by Himawari-8. It is found that hourly cycling assimilation of the infrared radiance improves not only the estimate of the initial intensity, but also the spatial distribution of essential convective activity associated with the incipient tropical cyclone vortex. Deterministic convection-permitting forecasts initialized from the EnKF analyses are capable of simulating the early development of Soudelor, which demonstrates encouraging prospects for future improvement in tropical cyclone prediction through assimilating all-sky radiances from geostationary satellites such as Himawari-8 and GOES-16. A series of forecast sensitivity experiments are designed to systematically explore the impacts of moisture updates in the data assimilation cycles on the development and prediction of Soudelor. It is found that the assimilation of the brightness temperatures contributes not only to better constraining moist convection within the inner-core region, but also to developing a more resilient initial vortex, both of which are necessary to properly capture the rapid intensification process of tropical cyclones.

No abstract

Hurricane Harvey brought catastrophic destruction and historical flooding to the Gulf Coast region in late August 2017. Guided by numerical weather prediction models, operational forecasters at NOAA provided outstanding forecasts of Harvey’s future path and potential for record flooding days in advance. These forecasts were valuable to the public and emergency managers in protecting lives and property. The current study shows the potential for further improving Harvey’s analysis and prediction through advanced ensemble assimilation of high-spatiotemporal all-sky infrared radiances from the newly launched, next-generation geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16. Although findings from this single-event study should be further evaluated, the results highlight the potential improvement in hurricane prediction that is possible via sustained investment in advanced observing systems, such as those from weather satellites, comprehensive data assimilation methodologies that can more effectively ingest existing and future observations, higher-resolution weather prediction models with more accurate numerics and physics, and high-performance computing facilities that can perform advanced analysis and forecasting in a timely manner.

An adaptive background error inflation (ABEI) method is proposed for assimilating all-sky satellite brightness temperatures with an ensemble Kalman filter. This empirical cloud-scene-dependent covariance inflation method is designed to mitigate the model's difficulties in initiating convection in the observed cloudy regions where the background prior estimated from the ensemble mean incorrectly simulates clear-sky conditions. This new approach calculates a spatially varying, flow-dependent, multiplicative ensemble covariance inflation factor based on error statistics produced by a well-constructed, off-line observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) that assimilates similar all-sky radiance observations but were generated by the model, in which case the truth is known for all the state variables and the assimilated radiances. The adaptive inflation factor is a linear function of a cloud parameter which is only applied to the observed cloudy regions where there are less or no cloud in the prior ensemble mean estimates. The performance of ABEI is evaluated through assimilating synthetic and real-data all-sky radiance experiments from the Advanced Baseline Imager on board GOES-16 for Hurricanes Karl of 2010 and Harvey of 2017. Assimilation experiments with ABEI allow adaptive inflation of the ensemble covariance in the model-simulated clear-sky regions when there are observed clouds while avoiding unnecessarily large ensemble spread in other cloud scenarios. This new approach alleviates the difficulty in estimating the appropriate inflation factors in the model state space using the innovation statistics in the observation space (radiance) with a highly nonlinear observation operator. It serves as an alternative to existing methods using spatially varying adaptive inflations; their relative performance and potential combinations are to be further assessed in the future.

Tropical cyclones (TCs; see Appendix A for a list of acronyms) are among the most devastating natural disasters in the tropics and mid-latitudes. They make for a triple-threat of wind damage, surge inundation, and inland/freshwater flooding, the last of which is a leading cause of fatalities in the United States from TCs (Rappaport, 2014). Accurate predictions of TCs are valuable to society because they facilitate targeted and efficient preparations for mitigating the loss of life and property.While forecasts of TC track and intensity have been continually improving over recent decades (e.g., Cangialosi et al., 2020;DeMaria et al., 2014), one important remaining challenge is accurate prediction of hazardous TC precipitation (Kidder et al., 2005). Hazardous TC precipitation events are difficult to predict because such events often result from hard-to-predict TC rain bands (e.g., Hurricane Harvey (2017); Blake & Zelinsky, 2018) and

The dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricane Harvey (2017) were examined using convection-permitting initialization, analysis, and prediction from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that assimilated all-sky infrared radiances from the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16. The EnKF analyses were able to evolve the various scales of the radiance fields associated with Harvey close to those observed, including those associated with scattered individual convective cells before the onset of rapid intensification (RI) and the organized vortex-scale convective system during and after RI. This was true for more than three days of a continuous assimilation cycling. Deterministic forecasts initialized from the EnKF analyses captured the rapidly deepening intensity of Harvey more than 24 hours prior to its onset. To explore the predictability of Harvey’s intensity during RI, ensemble probabilistic forecasts and sensitivity analyses were conducted. It was found that significant ensemble spread growth was induced by initial perturbations individually in either the wind or moisture fields. The nonlinear interactions between wind and moisture perturbations further limited the predictability of the intensification process of Harvey by increasing the uncertainty in the simulated wind and moisture distributions and modifying the convective activity and its feedback on vortex flow. This study highlights both the importance of better initializing the dynamic and moisture state variables simultaneously and the potential contribution of satellite all-sky radiance assimilation on constraining them and their associated convective activity that impacts RI of tropical cyclones.