SUMMARYThis paper examines the extent of state dependence in unemployment and the role played in this by intervening low-wage employment. A range of dynamic random and fixed-effects estimators are compared. Low-wage employment is found to have almost as large an adverse effect as unemployment on future prospects and the difference in their effects is found to be insignificant. Evidence is presented that low-wage jobs act as the main conduit for repeat unemployment and considerably increases its probability. Obtaining a higher-wage job reduces the increased risk of repeat unemployment to insignificance.

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This paper models low pay transitions in Britain using a bivariate probit model with endogenous selection to address the 'initial conditions' problem and parental variables as instruments. The exogeneity of the initial state is strongly rejected and results in considerable overstatement of the effects of explanatory factors. The probability of being low paid depends strongly on low pay in the previous year. Restricting attention to those who remain employees results in an overstatement of the probability of the low paid moving up the earnings distribution, but is not found to have much effect on the estimated effects of explanatory variables.

This paper uses individual-level longitudinal data from three contrasting datasets (LFS, BHPS and NES) to estimate the impact of the introduction of the UK minimum wage (in April 1999) on the probability of subsequent employment among those whose wages would have had to be raised to comply with the new minimum. A difference-in-differences estimator is used based on position in the wage distribution.The estimated effect is insignificantly different from zero for all four demographic groups considered. The evidence is consistent across the three datasets and is robust to an extensive range of modifications considered.