Risk analysis is essential to successful risk management plans and to the best accomplishment of mega construction projects. Probability and possibility theories are the main approaches in analysing risks. However, each theory has its own assumptions, inputs and outputs. This study looks in detail at these two theories and presents an analytical argument to explain the probable concept as a special case of the possible context by considering that a probability percentage is the chance of one possible outcome to occur among several limited possible outputs. Simultaneously, it presents a simple evaluation of Monte Carlo simulation as the main application of the probability theory, and fuzzy sets applications as one of the main applications of possibility theory. In addition, this study also considers whether the risk is probable or possible. Determining the reason behind this uncertainty will definitely help in assigning the proper theory, whether it is probability or possibility, in the decision making stage. Furthermore, and even when a decision is built on the probability theory, the existence of other outcomes should always be considered. This research aims to fill in a few missing gaps in the risk analysis system in order to deliver an improved analysis. The authors argue the high importance of characterizing risks according to their sources so that the expert will be able to classify the risk as either a probable or possible risk in order to be able to choose the theory on which the decision should be based.
Policymakers are continually facing new challenges that are exacerbated by the lack of dedicated analysis of how macroeconomic changes affect particular industries. One of the most current examples of this is the effect that Brexit will have on the British construction industry. This paper addresses the issue by deploying a new risk-based approach that utilizes the triangulation concept across risk impact, risk manageability, and the combination of those two factors. The novelty of this framework lies in the use of Fuzzy Theory to appraise the effect of a significant phenomenon when confronted with the absence of quantitative data. The research methodology adopts Fuzzy Sets Theory to assess the effect of Brexit upon the Human Resources, Currency, Trade, Funding, and Sovereignty areas of the industry to illustrate their vulnerability to time, cost, and reputation impacts. This novel approach overcomes biases by adopting Fuzzy set theory in assessing risks, and by focusing on the manageability of these risks in their external and internal environments, as opposed to the likelihood of risk occurrence. The research indicatively concluded that the areas most susceptible to Brexit are Human Resources and Currency, followed by Trade.
Interconnected electricity networks, or Supergrids, are considered as a possible solution to tackle challenges associated with near and far-future supply of electricity. These include, but are not limited to, reducing Green House Gas emissions and reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels. Supergrids can help to tackle these challenges, for example, by providing a reliable interconnection platform for wider application (and development) of renewable technologies. However, there is a range of risks and uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate interconnections. Heretofore these have been a hindrance to developing interconnections and therefore a Risk-Based Framework (RBF) which addresses these risks and uncertainties could encourage the wider uptake of Supergrids. This paper presents for the first time such a robust framework. The RBF comprises of four stages; (1) initial screening for selecting candidate countries, (2) risk identification, (3) risk semi-quantification and (4) risk quantification. In stage 4 the uncertainties associated with the identified risks are quantified using a cost-risk model under uncertainty based on a whole life appraisal approach. The usefulness of the approach, demonstrated using the UK as a case study, showed that greatest cost risks are associated with (a) regulatory framework, and (b) changes in energy policy. The most desirable interconnection option for the UK was identified as France.
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