Background Accurate prediction of the disease severity of patients with COVID-19 would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation and thereby reduce mortality risks, especially in less developed countries. Many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities, affect disease severity and can be used to aid this prediction. Objective Because rapid automated profiling of peripheral blood samples is widely available, we aimed to investigate how data from the peripheral blood of patients with COVID-19 can be used to predict clinical outcomes. Methods We investigated clinical data sets of patients with COVID-19 with known outcomes by combining statistical comparison and correlation methods with machine learning algorithms; the latter included decision tree, random forest, variants of gradient boosting machine, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and deep learning methods. Results Our work revealed that several clinical parameters that are measurable in blood samples are factors that can discriminate between healthy people and COVID-19–positive patients, and we showed the value of these parameters in predicting later severity of COVID-19 symptoms. We developed a number of analytical methods that showed accuracy and precision scores >90% for disease severity prediction. Conclusions We developed methodologies to analyze routine patient clinical data that enable more accurate prediction of COVID-19 patient outcomes. With this approach, data from standard hospital laboratory analyses of patient blood could be used to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of mortality, thus enabling optimization of hospital facilities for COVID-19 treatment.
Good vaccine safety and reliability are essential to prevent infectious disease spread. A small but significant number of apparent adverse reactions to the new COVID-19 vaccines have been reported. Here, we aim to identify possible common causes for such adverse reactions with a view to enabling strategies that reduce patient risk by using patient data to classify and characterise patients those at risk of such reactions. We examined patient medical histories and data documenting post-vaccination effects and outcomes. The data analyses were conducted by different statistical approaches followed by a set of machine learning classification algorithms. In most cases, similar features were significantly associated with poor patient reactions. These included patient prior illnesses, admission to hospitals and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. The analyses indicated that patient age, gender, allergic history, taking other medications, type-2 diabetes, hypertension and heart disease are the most significant pre-existing factors associated with risk of poor outcome and long duration of hospital treatments, pyrexia, headache, dyspnoea, chills, fatigue, various kind of pain and dizziness are the most significant clinical predictors. The machine learning classifiers using medical history were also able to predict patients most likely to have complication-free vaccination with an accuracy score above 85%. Our study identifies profiles of individuals that may need extra monitoring and care (e.g., vaccination at a location with access to comprehensive clinical support) to reduce negative outcomes through classification approaches. Important classifiers achieving these reactions notably included allergic susceptibility and incidence of heart disease or type-2 diabetes.
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