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Global warming causes the poleward shift of the trailing edges of marine ectotherm species distributions. In the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea, continental masses and oceanographic barriers do not allow natural connectivity with thermophilic species pools: as trailing edges retreat, a net diversity loss occurs. We quantify this loss on the Israeli shelf, among the warmest areas in the Mediterranean, by comparing current native molluscan richness with the historical one obtained from surficial death assemblages. We recorded only 12% and 5% of historically present native species on shallow subtidal soft and hard substrates, respectively. This is the largest climate-driven regional-scale diversity loss in the oceans documented to date. By contrast, assemblages in the intertidal, more tolerant to climatic extremes, and in the cooler mesophotic zone show approximately 50% of the historical native richness. Importantly, approximately 60% of the recorded shallow subtidal native species do not reach reproductive size, making the shallow shelf a demographic sink. We predict that, as climate warms, this native biodiversity collapse will intensify and expand geographically, counteracted only by Indo-Pacific species entering from the Suez Canal. These assemblages, shaped by climate warming and biological invasions, give rise to a ‘novel ecosystem’ whose restoration to historical baselines is not achievable.

Abstract. Anoxia was successfully induced in four benthic chambers installed at 24 m depth on the northern Adriatic seafloor from 9 days to 10 months. To accurately determine whether benthic foraminifera can survive experimentally induced prolonged anoxia, the CellTrackerTM Green method was applied and calcareous and agglutinated foraminifera were analyzed. Numerous individuals were found living at all sampling times and at all sampling depths (to 5 cm), supported by a ribosomal RNA analysis that revealed that certain benthic foraminifera were active after 10 months of anoxia. The results show that benthic foraminifera can survive up to 10 months of anoxia with co-occurring hydrogen sulfides. However, foraminiferal standing stocks decrease with sampling time in an irregular manner. A large difference in standing stock between two cores sampled under initial conditions indicates the presence of a large spatial heterogeneity of the foraminiferal faunas. An unexpected increase in standing stocks after one month is tentatively interpreted as a reaction to increased food availability due to the massive mortality of infaunal macrofaunal organisms. After this, standing stocks decrease again in cores sampled after 2 months of anoxia to then attain a minimum in the cores sampled after 10 months. We speculate that the trend of overall decrease of standing stocks is not due to the adverse effects of anoxia and hydrogen sulfides but rather due to a continuous diminution of labile organic matter.