Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractMarket value predictions for residential properties are important for investment decisions and the risk management of households, banks, and real estate developers. The increased access to market data has spurred the development and application of Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), which can provide appraisals at low cost. We discuss the stages involved when developing an AVM. By reflecting on our experience with md*immo, an AVM from Berlin, Germany, our paper contributes to an area that has not received much attention in the academic literature. In addition to discussing the main stages of AVM development, we examine empirically the statistical model development and validation step. We find that automated outlier removal is important and that a log model performs best, but only if it accounts for the retransformation problem and heteroscedasticity.
Real estate platforms provide a new source of data which has already been used as a substitute for transaction data in hedonic regression applications. This paper asks whether it is valid to do so in the established research areas of (1) willingness to pay estimation, (2) automated valuations, and (3) price index construction. It therefore compares listings and transaction data and regression results derived from them. We find that ask prices stochastically dominate sale prices, mainly because the composition of characteristics differs between the two data sets. But estimates of implicit prices also differ. As a result, willingness to pay estimates from listings data can be widely off when compared with estimates from transaction data. Listings data are not very useful to predict market values of individual houses either, as these predictions suffer from upward bias and large error variance. We find, however, that an ask price index complements a sale price index, as it is useful for nowcasting.
to estimate a map of land values for Berlin, Germany. Our data are prices of undeveloped land that was transacted between 1996-2009. Even though the observed land price is an indicator of the respective land value, it is influenced by transaction noise. The iterative AWS applies piecewise constant regression to reduce this noise and tests at each location for constancy at the margin. If not rejected, further observations are included in the local regression. The estimated land value map conforms overall well with expert-based land values. Our application suggests that the transparent AWS could prove a useful tool for researchers and real estate practitioners alike.
Automated valuation services (AVSs) offered by listings platforms predict market values based on property characteristics supplied by users. We investigate the implementation of such a service for the City of Aberdeen. We fit different market value models with machine learning methods and assess them in a rolling windows procedure that mimics an AVS setting. We also investigate the ease and robustness with which the models can be implemented. We discuss how prediction uncertainty can be measured and reported to users. If implemented in the future, such a service has the potential to improve the transparency of the local housing market.
In a world with complete markets, the decision whether to rent or buy a home is not influenced by risks related to human capital. If markets are incomplete and have frictions, however, this may change. Renting should become more likely the more mobile a household has to be and the more income risk can be diversified. Using household panel data from Germany, we test both predictions. We find that mobility requirements have a positive effect on the probability of renting. This effect is robust even after controlling for state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity and other factors known to influence the tenure mode choice. Our data, however, does not support the hypothesis that potential to diversify net income risk when renting affects the tenure mode choice.
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