Recent years have seen the acceleration of data- and evidence-based approaches in support of peace processes, creating a renewed confidence that conflicts can be predicted, known, and resolved, based on objective information about the world. However, new technologies employed by conflict parties, stakeholders, and those who aim to make or build peace have also made peace processes less ascertainable, intelligible, and predictable. Technology can thus create both more certainty and uncertainty in (and about) peace processes. This forum article presents a first collaborative attempt to explore how the use of technology by conflict parties and peacebuilding actors influences these dynamics. We examine various fields of engagement, ranging from conflict prevention to peace mediation, peacekeeping, and longer-term peacebuilding. Our discussion engages with a variety of related activities, including predictive analysis and foresight, conflict analysis, cease-fire monitoring, early warning and early action, and problem-solving and trust-building dialogues. We suggest approaching un-certainty as a spectrum between uncertainty and certainty that can be studied across epistemic, ontological, and normative dimensions, thus inviting further academic research and policy reflection. The article is coauthored by scholars and current or former practitioners and underlines the necessity, benefits, and feasibility of research–practice exchanges on this topic.
This article considers the issue of normative limits of peace negotiations as set in the existing international guidance for peace mediators. Tensions between the aim for peace, justice and the protection of human rights in the crafting of conflict settlements have been of increasing concern. Over the past decade the United Nations (UN) has been at the forefront of informing and guiding mediators on the normative limits of peace agreements negotiated under UN auspices. This article provides an overview of UN guidance addressing normative aspects and explores how these can impact on the negotiation process. It then proposes questions for further reflection on this growing trend. Ultimately the article argues that understanding the role of normative factors, especially legal parameters such as international human rights law and minority rights, can help to strengthen the legitimacy and credibility of peace processes and their outcomes.
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