[1] A combined geophysical and thermal monitoring approach for improved observation of mountain permafrost degradation is presented. Time-lapse inversion of repeated electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements allows both active layer dynamics and interannual permafrost conditions to be delineated. Analysis of a comprehensive ERT monitoring data set from a 7-year study at Schilthorn, Swiss Alps, confirmed the applicability of ERT monitoring to observations of freezing and thawing processes on short-term, seasonal, and long-term scales. Long-term resistivity changes were evaluated on the basis of seasonal resistivity variations showing an annual cycle with high resistivities in frozen and low resistivities in unfrozen state. One important result is the detection of a sustained impact of the extraordinarily hot European summer of 2003 on the permafrost regime, which is more severe than previously assumed from borehole temperatures. Combined analyses of ERT monitoring and borehole temperature data revealed substantial ground ice degradation as a consequence of the 2003 summer, which did not recover in the following years despite suitable subsurface temperature conditions. Resistivity changes that are nonconforming to long-term temperature evolution are attributed to the limited availability of liquid water and/or changes in material characteristics (e.g., pore volume changes as a result of subsidence).Citation: Hilbich, C., C. Hauck, M. Hoelzle, M. Scherler, L. Schudel, I. Völksch, D. Vonder Mühll, and R. Mäusbacher (2008), Monitoring mountain permafrost evolution using electrical resistivity tomography: A 7-year study of seasonal, annual, and long-term variations at Schilthorn, Swiss Alps,

A coupled heat and mass transfer model simulating mass and energy balance of the soil-snow-atmosphere boundary layer was applied to simulate ground temperatures, together with water and ice content evolution, in the active layer of an alpine permafrost site on Schilthorn, Swiss Alps. Abrupt shifts and subsequent fluctuations in ground temperature observed in alpine permafrost boreholes at the beginning of the zero curtain phase in summer were explained by snowmelt and meltwater infiltration. Simulated water contents were compared to values derived from inverted electrical resistivity measurements and yielded a further independent validation of the model results. The study shows that infiltration into frozen soil takes place as an oscillating process in the model. This process is constrained by initial ground temperatures, infiltrability and the availability of meltwater from the snow cover.

[1] Climate change as projected by contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) will have a great impact on high latitude and high mountain permafrost. A process-based one-dimensional permafrost model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of two characteristic alpine permafrost sites to changes in climate for a 110 year time period starting 1991 and ending 2100 using output time series of six different GCM-RCM model chains. Statistical analysis of the RCM climate variables and output of the impact model has been conducted to gain insight into the sensitivity of the active layer to changes in climatic conditions. Strong sensitivity to climate change was found for the active layer thickness (ALT) at Schilthorn, which increased by up to 100% before most of the models pointed to a degradation of the permafrost around the year 2020. The sensitivity of the ALT at the rock glacier site Murtèl is less pronounced; permafrost degradation is slower and sets in only around 2070. At both sites, the thermal evolution is linked to an increase in unfrozen water content within the permafrost body. Multiple linear regression analysis shows a strong model dependency of ALT on ice content and summer soil surface temperatures and to a less significant degree on snow cover timing and duration. The ALT at Schilthorn is influenced by the ALT of the preceding year, while at Murtèl, the ALT is influenced by the ALT of up to 15 preceding years.

Abstract. The thermal regime of permafrost on scree slopes and rock glaciers is characterized by the importance of air flow driven convective and advective heat transfer processes. These processes are supposed to be part of the energy balance in the active layer of rock glaciers leading to lower subsurface temperatures than would be expected at the lower limit of discontinuous high mountain permafrost. In this study, new parametrizations were introduced in a numerical soil model (the Coup Model) to simulate permafrost temperatures observed in a borehole at the Murtèl rock glacier in the Swiss Alps in the period from 1997 to 2008. A soil heat sink and source layer was implemented within the active layer, which was parametrized experimentally to account for and quantify the contribution of air flow driven heat transfer on the measured permafrost temperatures. The experimental model calibration process yielded a value of about 28.9 Wm −2 for the heat sink during the period from mid September to mid January and one of 26 Wm −2 for the heat source in the period from June to mid September. Energy balance measurements, integrated over a 3.5 m-thick blocky surface layer, showed seasonal deviations between a zero energy balance and the calculated sum of the energy balance components of around 5.5 Wm −2 in fall/winter, −0.9 Wm −2 in winter/spring and around −9.4 Wm −2 in summer. The calculations integrate heat exchange processes including thermal radiation between adjacent blocks, turbulent heat flux and energy storage change in the blocky surface layer. Finally, it is hypothesized that these deviations approximately equal unmeasured freezing and thawing processes within the blocky surface layer.

Climate models project considerable ranges and uncertainties in future climatic changes. To assess the potential impacts of climatic changes on mountain permafrost within these ranges of uncertainty, this study presents a sensitivity analysis using a permafrost process model combined with climate input based on delta-change approaches. Delta values comprise a multitude of coupled air temperature and precipitation changes to analyse long-term, seasonal and seasonal extreme changes on a typical low-ice content mountain permafrost location in the Swiss Alps. The results show that seasonal changes in autumn (SON) have the largest impact on the near-surface permafrost thermal regime in the model, and lowest impacts in winter (DJF). For most of the variability, snow cover duration and timing are the most important factors, whereas maximum snow height only plays a secondary role unless maximum snow heights are very small. At least for the low-ice content site of this study, extreme events have only short-term effects and have less impact on permafrost than long-term air temperature trends.