Objective We sought to predict if patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) would develop 10 selected complications. Accurate prediction of complications could help with more targeted measures that would prevent or slow down their development. Materials and Methods Experiments were conducted on the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases of California for the period of 2003 to 2011. Recurrent neural network (RNN) long short-term memory (LSTM) and RNN gated recurrent unit (GRU) deep learning methods were designed and compared with random forest and multilayer perceptron traditional models. Prediction accuracy of selected complications were compared on 3 settings corresponding to minimum number of hospitalizations between diabetes diagnosis and the diagnosis of complications. Results The diagnosis domain was used for experiments. The best results were achieved with RNN GRU model, followed by RNN LSTM model. The prediction accuracy achieved with RNN GRU model was between 73% (myocardial infarction) and 83% (chronic ischemic heart disease), while accuracy of traditional models was between 66% – 76%. Discussion The number of hospitalizations was an important factor for the prediction accuracy. Experiments with 4 hospitalizations achieved significantly better accuracy than with 2 hospitalizations. To achieve improved accuracy deep learning models required training on at least 1000 patients and accuracy significantly dropped if training datasets contained 500 patients. The prediction accuracy of complications decreases over time period. Considering individual complications, the best accuracy was achieved on depressive disorder and chronic ischemic heart disease. Conclusions The RNN GRU model was the best choice for electronic medical record type of data, based on the achieved results.

Highlights LSTM, RNN model for prediction of Alzheimer's diseases(AD) is developed from EMR data Information from 3 EMR domains were used: conditions, measurements and drugs We created positive AD cohorts using relevant medical knowledge as model inputs Selection of relevant input cohorts was crucial for overall RNN model prediction We efficiently applied the drugs and the measurement domain in prediction of AD

Attaining the proper balance between underfitting and overfitting is one of the central challenges in machine learning. It has been approached mostly by deriving bounds on generalization risks of learning algorithms. Such bounds are, however, rarely controllable. In this study, a novel bias-variance balancing objective function is introduced in order to improve generalization performance. By utilizing distance correlation, this objective function is able to indirectly control a stability-based upper bound on a model's expected true risk. In addition, the Generalization-Aware Collaborative Ensemble Regressor (GLACER) is developed, a model that bags a crowd of structured regression models, while allowing them to collaborate in a fashion that minimizes the proposed objective function. The experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data indicate that such an objective enhances the overall model's predictive performance. When compared against a broad range of both traditional and structured regression models GLACER was ~10-56% and ~49-99% more accurate for the task of predicting housing prices and hospital readmissions, respectively.

This paper describes the implementation of a prediction model for real-time assessment of weather related outages in the electric transmission system. The network data and historical outages are correlated with a variety of weather sources in order to construct the knowledge extraction platform for accurate outage probability prediction. An extension of the logistic regression prediction model that embeds the spatial configuration of the network was used for prediction. The results show that the developed model manifests high accuracy and is able to differentiate an outage area from the rest of the network in 1 to 3 hours before the outage. The prediction model is integrated inside a weather testbed for real-time mapping of network outage probabilities based on incoming weather forecast.

Ensemble generation is a natural and convenient way of achieving better generalization performance of learning algorithms by gathering their predictive capabilities. Here, we nurture the idea of ensemble-based learning by combining bagging and boosting for the purpose of binary classification. Since the former improves stability through variance reduction, while the latter ameliorates overfitting, the outcome of a multi-model that combines both strives toward a comprehensive net-balancing of the bias-variance trade-off. To further improve this, we alter the bagged-boosting scheme by introducing collaboration between the multi-model’s constituent learners at various levels. This novel stability-guided classification scheme is delivered in two flavours: during or after the boosting process. Applied among a crowd of Gentle Boost ensembles, the ability of the two suggested algorithms to generalize is inspected by comparing them against Subbagging and Gentle Boost on various real-world datasets. In both cases, our models obtained a 40% generalization error decrease. But their true ability to capture details in data was revealed through their application for protein detection in texture analysis of gel electrophoresis images. They achieve improved performance of approximately 0.9773 AUROC when compared to the AUROC of 0.9574 obtained by an SVM based on recursive feature elimination.

Objective Clinical trials, prospective research studies on human participants carried out by a distributed team of clinical investigators, play a crucial role in the development of new treatments in health care. This is a complex and expensive process where investigators aim to enroll volunteers with predetermined characteristics, administer treatment(s), and collect safety and efficacy data. Therefore, choosing top-enrolling investigators is essential for efficient clinical trial execution and is 1 of the primary drivers of drug development cost. Materials and Methods To facilitate clinical trials optimization, we propose DeepMatch (DM), a novel approach that builds on top of advances in deep learning. DM is designed to learn from both investigator and trial-related heterogeneous data sources and rank investigators based on their expected enrollment performance on new clinical trials. Results Large-scale evaluation conducted on 2618 studies provides evidence that the proposed ranking-based framework improves the current state-of-the-art by up to 19% on ranking investigators and up to 10% on detecting top/bottom performers when recruiting investigators for new clinical trials. Discussion The extensive experimental section suggests that DM can provide substantial improvement over current industry standards in several regards: (1) the enrollment potential of the investigator list, (2) the time it takes to generate the list, and (3) data-informed decisions about new investigators. Conclusion Due to the great significance of the problem at hand, related research efforts are set to shift the paradigm of how investigators are chosen for clinical trials, thereby optimizing and automating them and reducing the cost of new therapies.

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