Fertilization of the ocean by adding iron compounds has induced diatom-dominated phytoplankton blooms accompanied by considerable carbon dioxide drawdown in the ocean surface layer. However, because the fate of bloom biomass could not be adequately resolved in these experiments, the timescales of carbon sequestration from the atmosphere are uncertain. Here we report the results of a five-week experiment carried out in the closed core of a vertically coherent, mesoscale eddy of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, during which we tracked sinking particles from the surface to the deep-sea floor. A large diatom bloom peaked in the fourth week after fertilization. This was followed by mass mortality of several diatom species that formed rapidly sinking, mucilaginous aggregates of entangled cells and chains. Taken together, multiple lines of evidence-although each with important uncertainties-lead us to conclude that at least half the bloom biomass sank far below a depth of 1,000 metres and that a substantial portion is likely to have reached the sea floor. Thus, iron-fertilized diatom blooms may sequester carbon for timescales of centuries in ocean bottom water and for longer in the sediments.

This paper describes the sea ice component of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm); it presents example Arctic and Antarctic results from a realistic, eddy-admitting, global ocean and sea ice configuration; and it compares B-grid and C-grid dynamic solvers and other numerical details of the parameterized dynamics and thermodynamics in a regional Arctic configuration. Ice mechanics follow a viscous-plastic rheology and the ice momentum equations are solved numerically using either line-successive-over-relaxation (LSOR) or elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) dynamic models. Ice thermodynamics are represented using either a zero-heat-capacity formulation or a two-layer formulation that conserves enthalpy. The model includes prognostic variables for snow thickness and for sea ice salinity. The above sea ice model components were borrowed from currentgeneration climate models but they were reformulated on an Arakawa C grid in order to match the MITgcm oceanic grid and they were modified in many ways to permit efficient and accurate automatic differentiation. Both stress tensor divergence and advective terms are discretized with the finite-volume method. The choice of the dynamic solver has a considerable effect on the solution; this effect can be larger than, for example, the choice of lateral boundary conditions, of ice rheology, and of ice-ocean stress coupling. The solutions obtained with different dynamic solvers typically differ by a few cm s −1 in ice drift speeds, 50 cm in ice thickness, and order 200 km 3 yr −1 in freshwater (ice and snow) export out of the Arctic.

[1] Processes at the ice shelf-ocean interface and in particular in ice shelf cavities around Antarctica have an observable effect on the solutions of basin scale to global coupled ice-ocean models. Despite this, these processes are not routinely represented in global ocean and climate models. It is shown that a new ice shelf cavity model for z coordinate models can reproduce results from an intercomparison project of earlier approaches with vertical s or isopycnic coordinates. As a proof of concept, ice shelves are incorporated in a 100-year global integration of a z coordinate model. In this simulation, glacial meltwater can be traced as far as north as 15°S. The observed effects of processes in the ice shelf cavities agree with previous results from a s coordinate model, notably the increase in sea ice thickness. However, melt rates are overestimated probably because the parameterization of basal melting does not suit the low resolution of this configuration.

The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar–lower-latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting communites will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and educational activities.

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