On 31 August a new eruption began from the same fissure and is still ongoing at the time of writing. After 4 September the movement associated with the dyke was minor, suggesting an approximate equilibrium between inflow of magma into the dyke and magma flowing out of it feeding the eruption. Minor eruptions may have occurred under Vatnajškull; shallow ice depressions marked by circular crevasses (ice cauldrons) were discovered in the period 27/08-07/09, indicating leakage of magma or magmatic heat to the glacier causing basal melting ( Fig. 1 and 2b). On 5 September, aircraft radar profiling showed that the ice surface in the centre of the B ‡r!arbunga caldera had subsided 16 m relative to the surroundings, resulting in a 0.32±0.08 km 3 subsidence bowl ( can be compared to a 1 day interferogram over the ice surface spanning 27 -28 August (Fig. 1), that has maximum line-of-sight (LOS) increase of 57 cm, indicating 55-70 cm of subsidence, during 24 hours. From 24 August to 6 September 16 M≥5 earthquakes occurred on the caldera boundary.Over 22000 earthquakes were automatically detected 16/08-06/09 2014, 5000 of which have been manually checked. Four thousand of these have been relatively relocated, defining the dyke segments. Ground deformation in areas outside the Vatnajškull ice cap, and on nunataks within the ice cap, is well mapped by a combination of InSAR, continuously recording GPS sites, and campaign GPS measurements. The GPS observations and analysis give the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional displacements used in the modelling (Fig. 1). Interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images from the COSMO-SkyMed, RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X satellites was used to form 11 interferograms showing LOS change spanning different time intervals (Supplementary Fig. 2). The analysis of seismic and geodetic data is described in Methods.Initial modelling of the dyke, with no a priori constraints on position, strike or dip, show the deformation data require the dyke to be approximately vertical and line up with the seismicity (Extended Data item 4). We therefore fixed the dip to be vertical and the lateral position of the dyke to coincide with the earthquake locations.We modelled the dyke as a series of rectangular patches and estimated the opening and slip on each patch ( Fig. 3a; see Supplementary Figures 3-4 for slip and standard deviations of opening). We used a Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate 7 the multivariate probability distribution for all model parameters (Methods) on each day 16/08-06/09 2014 (Fig. 2d). The results suggest that most of the magma injected into the dyke is shallower than the seismicity, which mostly spans the depth range from 5 to 8 km below sea level (see Fig. 2c and Methods). While magma may extend to depths greater than 9 km near the centre of the ice cap, towards the edge of the ice cap where constraints from InSAR and GPS are much better, significant opening is all shallower than 5 km (Fig. 3a). The total volume intruded into the dyke by 28 August was 0.48-0...

40Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with collapse of the roof of a crustal magma 41 reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century and lack of detailed 42 observations has obscured insight on mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use Calderas are 1 -100 km diameter depressions found in volcanic regions of Earth and other planets. basaltic andesite) intrusive activity and eruptions (2,(9)(10)(11)(12). 59The consensus from field and modelling studies is that caldera collapse progresses from initial 60 surface downsag to fault-controlled subsidence (1, 8, 13, 14). The pre-collapse topography is obtained by subtracting the subsidence observed at the surface. As we recorded the caldera subsidence mainly on the ice (Fig. 1, Fig. S1), we made corrections and (Fig. 3A). We therefore conclude that suggestions of a large increase in ice flow out of the caldera 147 during these events (25) cannot be fitted with our data. 148Bedrock subsidence exceeding 1 m occurred within an area of 110 km 2 that extended beyond the 149 pre-existing caldera (Fig. 1, Fig. S1). After termination of collapse the total subsidence at the pre-150 existing caldera rims amounted to 3 to 11 meters ( Fig. 1D and 1E). Using subglacial radio-echo GPS station in the center of the caldera (Fig. 1A), including the rate of vertical rate of ice surface Cumulative number of M>4 caldera earthquakes, with magnitude evolution colored in red, blue and 176 grey representing clusters on the southern rim, the northern rim and smaller clusters, respectively 177 (see Fig. S5). E) Cumulative seismic moment for M>4 caldera earthquakes. from analysis of subaerial gas measurements (Fig. 4). This depth concurs with our regional on FTIR and Multi-GAS measurements (24). 194Seismicity and subsurface structure 195 We used seismic data and Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical modelling (24), to 196 characterize the deeper collapse structure as the reactivation of a steeply-inclined ring fault (Fig. 5). 197We mostly observed seismicity at depths of 0-9 km beneath the northern and southern caldera rims 198( Fig. 5B), with earthquakes being more numerous on the northern rim. This spatial pattern of 199 seismicity is consistent with fracturing above a deflating magma reservoir that was elliptical in (Fig. 5C, D). Our best fitting models had preexisting faults dipping out at 80-85¡ from the caldera 207 center on the north side and at 85-90¡ toward the caldera center on the south side. The modeled pre- 208existing faults lay at 1-2 km below the surface on the north side and 3-4 km on the south side. 209Modeling of a more complex fault geometry or the inclusion of greater material heterogeneity may 210 further improve the data fit, but presently lacks robust geophysical constraints. components of the observed earthquakes at B ‡rdarbunga. We, however, narrowed down on 222 plausible solutions by using the micro-earthquakes (Fig. 5A). The moment tensor solutions are well 223 constrained, but the inferred d...

Gradual inflation of magma chambers often precedes eruptions at highly active volcanoes. During such eruptions, rapid deflation occurs as magma flows out and pressure is reduced. Less is known about the deformation style at moderately active volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, where an explosive summit eruption of trachyandesite beginning on 14 April 2010 caused exceptional disruption to air traffic, closing airspace over much of Europe for days. This eruption was preceded by an effusive flank eruption of basalt from 20 March to 12 April 2010. The 2010 eruptions are the culmination of 18 years of intermittent volcanic unrest. Here we show that deformation associated with the eruptions was unusual because it did not relate to pressure changes within a single magma chamber. Deformation was rapid before the first eruption (>5 mm per day after 4 March), but negligible during it. Lack of distinct co-eruptive deflation indicates that the net volume of magma drained from shallow depth during this eruption was small; rather, magma flowed from considerable depth. Before the eruption, a ∼0.05 km(3) magmatic intrusion grew over a period of three months, in a temporally and spatially complex manner, as revealed by GPS (Global Positioning System) geodetic measurements and interferometric analysis of satellite radar images. The second eruption occurred within the ice-capped caldera of the volcano, with explosivity amplified by magma-ice interaction. Gradual contraction of a source, distinct from the pre-eruptive inflation sources, is evident from geodetic data. Eyjafjallajökull's behaviour can be attributed to its off-rift setting with a 'cold' subsurface structure and limited magma at shallow depth, as may be typical for moderately active volcanoes. Clear signs of volcanic unrest signals over years to weeks may indicate reawakening of such volcanoes, whereas immediate short-term eruption precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect.

Extension deficit builds up over centuries at divergent plate boundaries and is recurrently removed during rifting events, accompanied by magma intrusions and transient metre-scale deformation. However, information on transient near-field deformation has rarely been captured, hindering progress in understanding rifting mechanisms and evolution. Here we show new evidence of oblique rift opening during a rifting event influenced by pre-existing fractures and two centuries of extension deficit accumulation. This event originated from the Bárðarbunga caldera and led to the largest basaltic eruption in Iceland in >200 years. The results show that the opening was initially accompanied by left-lateral shear that ceased with increasing opening. Our results imply that pre-existing fractures play a key role in controlling oblique rift opening at divergent plate boundaries.

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