Seasonal variability of the tropical Atlantic circulation is dominated by the annual cycle, but semiannual variability is also pronounced, despite weak forcing at that period. This study uses multiyear, full-depth velocity measurements from the central equatorial Atlantic to analyze the vertical structure of annual and semiannual variations of zonal velocity. A baroclinic modal decomposition finds that the annual cycle is dominated by the fourth mode and the semiannual cycle is dominated by the second mode. Similar local behavior is found in a high-resolution general circulation model. This simulation reveals that the annual and semiannual cycles of the respective dominant baroclinic modes are associated with characteristic basinwide structures. Using an idealized, linear, reduced-gravity model to simulate the dynamics of individual baroclinic modes, it is shown that the observed circulation variability can be explained by resonant equatorial basin modes. Corollary simulations of the reduced-gravity model with varying basin geometry (i.e., square basin vs realistic coastlines) or forcing (i.e., spatially uniform vs spatially variable wind) show a structural robustness of the simulated basin modes. A main focus of this study is the seasonal variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) as identified in recent observational studies. Main characteristics of the observed EUC including seasonal variability of transport, core depth, and maximum core velocity can be explained by the linear superposition of the dominant equatorial basin modes as obtained from the reduced-gravity model.

The equatorial deep jets (EDJ) are a striking feature of the equatorial ocean circulation. In

Northern Europe and the UK experienced an exceptionally warm and wet winter in 2019/20, driven by an anomalously positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This positive NAO was well forecast by several seasonal forecast systems, suggesting that this winter the NAO was highly predictable at seasonal lead times. A very strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event was also observed at the start of winter. Here we use composite analysis and model experiments, to show that the IOD was a key driver of the observed positive NAO. Using model experiments that perturb the Indian Ocean initial conditions, two teleconnection pathways of the IOD to the north Atlantic emerge: a tropospheric teleconnection pathway via a Rossby wave train travelling from the Indian Ocean over the Pacific and Atlantic, and a stratospheric teleconnection pathway via the Aleutian region and the stratospheric polar vortex. These pathways are similar to those for the El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the north Atlantic which are already well documented. The anomalies in the north Atlantic jet stream location and strength, and the associated precipitation anomalies over the UK and northern Europe, as simulated by the model IOD experiments, show remarkable agreement with those forecast and observed.

[1] Equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are a prominent flow feature of the equatorial Atlantic below the Equatorial Undercurrent down to about 3000 m. Here we analyze long-term moored velocity and oxygen observations, as well as shipboard hydrographic and current sections acquired along 23 W and covering the depth range of the oxygen minimum zones of the eastern tropical North and South Atlantic. The moored zonal velocity data show high-baroclinic mode EDJ oscillations at a period of about 4.5 years. Equatorial oxygen observations which do not resolve or cover a full 4.5-yr EDJ cycle nevertheless reveal large variability, with oxygen concentrations locally spanning a range of more than 60 mmol kg À1. We study the effect of EDJs on the equatorial oxygen concentration by forcing an advection-diffusion model with the velocity field of the gravest equatorial basin mode corresponding to the observed EDJ cycle. The advection-diffusion model includes an oxygen source at the western boundary and oxygen consumption elsewhere. The model produces a 4.5-yr cycle of the oxygen concentration and a temporal phase difference between oxygen concentration and eastward velocity that is less than quadrature, implying a net eastward oxygen flux. The comparison of available observations and basin-mode simulations indicates that a substantial part of the observed oxygen variability at the equator can be explained by EDJ oscillations. The respective role of mean advection, EDJs, and other possible processes in shaping the mean oxygen distribution of the equatorial Atlantic at intermediate depth is discussed.