Temporal distribution of earthquakes is key to seismic hazard assessment. However, for most fault systems shortness of large earthquake catalogues makes this assessment difficult. Its unique long earthquake record makes the Dead Sea fault (DSF) exceptional to test earthquake behaviour models. A paleoseismological trench along the southern section of the DSF, revealed twelve surface-rupturing earthquakes during the last 8000 years, of which many correlate with past earthquakes reported in historical chronicles. These data allowed us building a rupture scenario for this area, which includes timing and rupture length for all significant earthquakes during the last two millenaries. Extending this rupture scenario to the entire DSF south of Lebanon, we were able to confirm the temporal-clustering hypothesis. Using rupture length and scaling laws, we have estimated average co-seismic slip for each past earthquake. The cumulated slip was then balanced with long-term tectonic loading to estimate the slip deficit for this part of DSF over the last 1600 years. The seismic-slip budget shows that the slip deficit is similarly high along the fault with a minimum of 2 meters, which suggests that an earthquake cluster might happen over the entire region in the near future.

Strike-slip faults are generally described as continuous structures, while they are actually formed of successive segments separated by geometrical complexities. Although this along-strike segmentation is known to affect the overall dynamics of earthquakes, the physical processes governing the scale of this segmentation remain unclear. Here, we use analogue models to investigate the structural development of strike-slip faults and the physical parameters controlling segmentation. We show that the length of fault segments is regular along strike and scales linearly with the thickness of the brittle material. Variations of the rheological properties only have minor effects on the scaling relationship. Ratios between the segment length and the brittle material thickness are similar for coseismic ruptures and sandbox experiments. This supports a model where crustal seismogenic thickness controls fault geometry. Finally, we show that the geometrical complexity acquired during strike-slip fault formation withstands cumulative displacement. Thus, the inherited complexity impedes the formation of an ever-straighter fault, and might control the length of earthquake ruptures.