Summary Background Elevated blood pressure and glucose, serum cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes. We estimated CVD, CKD, and diabetes mortality attributable to these four cardio-metabolic risk factors for all countries and regions between 1980 and 2010. Methods We used data on risk factor exposure by country, age group, and sex from pooled analysis of population-based health surveys. Relative risks for cause-specific mortality were obtained from pooling of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAF) for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multi-causality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific PAFs by the number of disease-specific deaths from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all inputs to the final estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for dying from CVDs, CKD, and diabetes in every region, causing over 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths; and cholesterol for 10%. After accounting for multi-causality, 63% (10.8 million deaths; 95% confidence interval 10.1–11.5) of deaths from these diseases were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7.1 million deaths; 6.6–7.6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled between 1980 and 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates attributable to these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100,000 among men in Belarus, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, but were below 130 deaths per 100,000 for women and below 200 for men in some high-income countries like Japan, Singapore, South Korea, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada. Interpretations The salient features of the cardio-metabolic epidemic at the beginning of the twenty-first century are the large role of high blood pressure and an increasing impact of obesity and diabetes. There has been a shift in the mortality burden from high-income to low- and middle-income countries.

The prevalence of obesity in some lower-income and transitional countries is as high as, or even higher than, the prevalence reported in developed nations, and it seems to be increasing rapidly. In most countries, the prevalence of obesity is higher in women than in men, and higher in urban than in rural areas. Preobesity prevalence is very high in most Latin-American countries. Sixty per cent of the population in Venado Tuerto (Argentina) has a body mass index (BMI) of > or = 25 kg m-2, as do 35% of the population in Brazil, 60% in Mexico, 68% in Paraguay and 53% in Peru. Trends are available from Brazil, where marked increases in the prevalence of obesity have occurred, except in women from higher-income groups. Women from the higher-income quartiles in urban regions experienced a marked reduction in obesity prevalence from 1989 to 1997 (12.8 to 9.2%). Although data in children is scant, the prevalence of undernutrition is decreasing and the prevalence of obesity is high also in Latin-American children. The prevalence of obesity is high even in minority Indian groups. Rapid changes in dietary structure (in particular associated with urbanization) and major changes in the levels of physical activity, both occupationally and during leisure time, may explain these changes.

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The study documents an incidence rate of childhood IDDM in Avellaneda, Argentina, similar to other Occidental countries.