Zoonoses are an important class of infectious diseases. An important element determining the impact of a zoonosis on domestic animal and human health is host range. Although for particular zoonoses some host species have been identified, until recently there have been no methods to predict those species most likely to be hosts or their relative importance. Complex inference networks infer potential biotic interactions between species using their degree of geographic co-occurrence, and have been posited as a potential tool for predicting disease hosts. Here we present the results of an interdisciplinary, empirical study to validate a model based on such networks for predicting hosts of Leishmania (L.) mexicana in Mexico. Using systematic sampling to validate the model predictions we identified 22 new species of host (34% of all species collected) with the probability to be a host strongly dependent on the probability of co-occurrence of vector and host. The results confirm that Leishmania (L.) mexicana is a generalist parasite but with a much wider host range than was previously thought. These results substantially change the geographic risk profile for Leishmaniasis and provide insights for the design of more efficient surveillance measures and a better understanding of potential dispersal scenarios.
Habitat heterogeneity is a primary ecological factor that is particularly pronounced in arid ecosystems. The Tehuacán valley is a subtropical semi‐arid ecosystem in which several species of columnar cacti and agave (i.e., CAM plants) constitute the dominant elements accompanied by patches of trees and shrubs (i.e., C3 plants). Vegetation in Tehuacán is isotopically heterogenous because CAM plants have less depleted δ13C values than C3 plants. Fruits and flowers of cactus and agaves offer abundant food to vertebrates, but their leaves might be less attractive to insects than the leaves of C3 plants. Therefore, we use carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis to test the hypothesis that C3 and CAM food would contribute asymmetrically to different guilds of birds and bats. We predict that granivorous and frugivorous birds and nectarivorous and frugivorous bats will consume a CAM diet, whereas insectivorous birds and bats will consume a C3 diet. Due to omnivory of bird and bat consumers, we predict that the importance of CAM food will decrease as the trophic level of the animal increases. Our results showed that CAM food predominated in plant‐eating birds and in some flower‐visiting bats, whereas C3 food predominated in insect‐eating bats and birds and frugivorous bats. Habitat heterogeneity in Tehuacán is important for conservation due to the asymmetric role of CAM and C3 food in the nutrition of different feeding guilds of vertebrates. Our study provides basic information to evaluate the potential impact of habitat loss on functional groups of consumers in a semi‐arid ecosystem.
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