The ongoing rise in sea level affects tidal propagation and circulation in estuaries, and these changes can have far reaching consequences on the sediment dynamics, water quality and extreme water levels. This study aims at anticipating the evolution of the tidal dynamics in the Tagus (Portugal) in the 21st century, in particular due to sea level rise (SLR). The existence of a resonance mode of about 8 hours in this estuary, that selectively amplifies both semi-diurnal and quarter-diurnal tidal constituents, makes the response of the Tagus estuary to SLR unique. The study was conducted with a shallow water model, forced by present and future conditions, namely higher mean sea levels and an extrapolated bathymetry based on present sedimentation rates. Model results showed that SLR will significantly affect tidal asymmetry, in particular because the intertidal area can decrease by up to 40% by the end of the 21st century. As a result, the strong ebb-dominance of this estuary will decrease significantly. This evolution of tidal asymmetry will be counteracted by the effect of sedimentation of the salt-marsh areas. Also, SLR will enhance the resonance in the Tagus estuary. As a consequence, extreme water levels will be higher than the sum of present levels with the SLR

Overwash hydrodynamic datasets are mixed in quality and scope, being difficult to obtain due to fieldwork experimental limitations. Nevertheless, these measurements are crucial to develop reliable models to predict overwash. Aiming to overcome such limitations, this work presents accurate fieldwork data on overwash hydrodynamics, further exploring it to model overwash on a low-lying barrier island. Fieldwork was undertaken on Barreta Island (Portugal) in December 2013, during neap tides and under energetic conditions, with significant wave height reaching 2.6 m. During approximately 4 hours, more than 120 shallow overwash events were measured with a video-camera, a pressure transducer and a current-meter. This high-frequency fieldwork dataset includes runup, overwash number, depth and velocity. Fieldwork data along with information from literature were used to implement XBeach model in non-hydrostatic mode (wave-resolving). The baseline model was tested for six verification cases; the model was able to predict overwash in five. Based in performance metrics and the verification cases, it was considered that the Barreta baseline overwash model is a reliable tool for the prediction of overwash hydrodynamics. The baseline model was then forced to simulate overwash under different hydrodynamic conditions (waves and lagoon water level) and morpho-sedimentary settings (nearshore topography and beach grain-size), within the range of values characteristic for the study area. Based on this study, the order of importance of factors controlling overwash predictability in the study area are: 1 st) wave height (more than wave period) can promote overwash 3-4 times more intense than the one recorded during fieldwork; 2 nd) nearshore bathymetry, particularly shallower submerge bars, can promote an average decrease of about 30% in overwash; 3 rd) grain-size, finer sediment produced an 11% increase in overwash due to reduced infiltration; and 4 th) lagoon water level, only negligible differences were evidenced by changes in the lagoon level. This implies that for model predictions to be reliable, accurate wave forecast are necessary and topo-bathymetric configuration needs to be monitored frequently.

This study aims at understanding the fecal contamination behavior in a small coastal stream (Aljezur, Portugal), which has significant economic and ecological values. Like in most small coastal systems, circulation and water renewal in the Aljezur stream exhibit a strong variability due to their dependence on tides, waves, intermittent river flows, and a highly variable morphology. Hence, the problem was approached through a combination of field surveys and the development and application of a hard-coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and fecal contamination model. Salinity and temperature results have shown that mixing and transport in the stream are very sensitive to the river flow and wind forcing. The model is able to represent the main patterns and trends observed in Escherichia coli and fecal enterococcus concentrations along the stream, for different environmental and contamination conditions, suggesting die-off rates on the order of 0.50-0.55 day −1 . Die-off rate and the representation of the sediment-associated processes were identified as the major remaining sources of uncertainty in the model. Results show that, owing to the processes that occur along the stream, fecal bacteria reach the beaches water in numbers that comply with the European Bathing Waters Directive, even during the summer periods when the upstream concentrations are larger. In particular, results suggest a direct relation between the tidal propagation upstream and the reduction of the fecal bacteria concentrations along the stream that can be relevant for the development of a strategy for the management of the system's water safety.

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Hydrodynamics and water renewal of intermittent coastal streams are highly variable, at various time scales, due to the very active morphodynamic behavior of their inlets. Due to this strong dynamics, the pathways of water-borne materials-and the consequences of contaminated discharges-can depend strongly on the morphology and environmental conditions. Predicting the fate of contaminants in these systems requires coupled numerical models accounting for the major physical and water quality processes. We aim at improving the understanding of the impact of inlet morphology and wave action on the pollutant and sediment pathways of these small coastal systems, based on a suite of calibrated and validated coupled models. Two analyses, based on particle simulations, are presented to assess sediment dynamics and pollutant pathways for several conditions. Results show that waves have a major effect on the fate of waterborne materials in the estuary. Wave-induced currents sweep away materials coming out of the estuary, while wave-induced setup has a profound effect on tidal propagation, water levels and velocities in the estuary, promoting the upstream transport of pollutants.

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