Abstract:Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components. Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specifications are discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. An empirical application to NASDAQindex data indicates the appropriateness of the model class and illustrates that the approach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditional variance process, in which the components' volatility dynamics have a clearly distinct behavior that is, for example, compatible with the well-known leverage effect.JEL Classification: C22, C51, G10
Background
The principal biological processes that characterize heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are systemic inflammation, epicardial adipose tissue accumulation, coronary microcirculatory rarefaction, myocardial fibrosis and vascular stiffness; the resulting impairment of left ventricular and aortic distensibility (especially when accompanied by impaired glomerular function and sodium retention) causes increases in cardiac filling pressures and exertional dyspnoea despite the relative preservation of left ventricular ejection fraction. Independently of their actions on blood glucose, sodium–glucose co‐transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors exert a broad range of biological effects (including actions to inhibit cardiac inflammation and fibrosis, antagonize sodium retention and improve glomerular function) that can ameliorate the pathophysiological derangements in HFpEF. Such SGLT2 inhibitors exert favourable effects in experimental models of HFpEF and have been found in large‐scale trials to reduce the risk for serious heart failure events in patients with type 2 diabetes, many of whom were retrospectively identified as having HFpEF.
Study design
The EMPEROR‐Preserved Trial is enrolling ≈5750 patients with HFpEF (ejection fraction >40%), with and without type 2 diabetes, who are randomized to receive placebo or empagliflozin 10 mg/day, which is added to all appropriate treatments for HFpEF and co‐morbidities.
Study aims
The primary endpoint is the time‐to‐first‐event analysis of the combined risk for cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure. The trial will also evaluate the effects of empagliflozin on renal function, cardiovascular death,
all‐cause mortality and recurrent hospitalization events, and will assess a wide range of biomarkers that reflect important pathophysiological mechanisms that may drive the evolution of HFpEF. The EMPEROR‐Preserved Trial is well positioned to determine if empagliflozin can have a meaningful impact on the course of HFpEF, a disorder for which there are currently few therapeutic options.
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