Article:Paulley, N., Balcombe, R., Mackett, R. et al. (5 more AbstractThis paper reports on key findings from a collaborative study whose objective was to produce an up-to-date guidance manual on the factors affecting the demand for public transport for use by public transport operators and planning authorities, and for academics and other researchers. Whilst a wide range of factors was examined in the study, the paper concentrates on the findings regarding the influence of fares, quality of service and income and car ownership. The results are a distillation and synthesis of identified published and unpublished information on the factors affecting public transport demand. The context is principally that of urban surface transport in Great Britain, but extensive use was made in the study of international sources and examples.

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership.The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data.Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

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This paper describes the development of a mode choice model for the journey to work with special emphasis on the propensity to cycle. The model combines revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data to form a very large and comprehensive model. RP data from the National Travel Survey was combined with a specially commissioned RP survey.A number of SP surveys were also undertaken to examine the effects of different types of en-route and trip end cycle facilities and financial measures to encourage cycling. The development of the model is described in detail. The model was used to forecast trends in urban commuting shares over time and to predict the impacts of different measures to encourage cycling. Of the en-route cycle facilities, a completely segregated cycleway was forecast to have the greatest impact, but even the unfeasible scenario of universal provision of such facilities would only result in a 55% increase in cycling and a slight reduction in car commuting. Payments for cycling to work were found to be highly effective with a £2 daily payment almost doubling the level of cycling. The most effective policy would combine improvements in en-route facilities, a daily payment to cycle to work and comprehensive trip end facilities and this would also have a significant impact on car commuting.

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14 15Climate change is one of the greatest challenges confronting the international 16 community requiring action to achieve deep cuts in carbon emissions. The 17 implementation of potentially uncomfortable but necessary policy measures is, 18 though, critically dependent upon public acceptability. This paper reports a 19 novel application of stated preference techniques to explore the influence of 20 key design attributes on the acceptability of a personal carbon trading scheme 21 in isolation and when compared to a carbon tax. Illustrative forecasts from the 22 models developed indicate the importance of design attributes, especially the 23 basis of the initial permit allocation for personal carbon trading and the use to 24 2 which revenues are put for carbon tax. Results indicate that the "best" 25 scheme designs could be acceptable to a majority of respondents. 35In the light of compelling evidence of the need to make very deep cuts in 36 greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007;Stern, 2006) instrument with which to achieve demanding reductions in carbon emissions 46 and has aroused interest at national government level in the UK (Defra, 47 2008a). PCT is a downstream trading mechanism normally understood to 48 involve an initial allocation of carbon permits to individuals based on carbon 49 reduction targets, with individuals able to buy and sell permits according to 50 their desired carbon consumption and prevailing permit prices. However, the 51 precise structure of a scheme could vary considerably given the potential 52 range of additional design features including management of individual carbon 53 accounts, market operation, regulation, permit allocation, scope of coverage 54 and transaction costs. Policy makers would be interested in which scheme 55 designs have the greatest acceptability amongst the general public. 1 For a complete account of theoretical differences and equivalence between the two schemes please see Pezzey (2003) and Crals and Vereeck (2005) 5 a high degree of variation in emissions levels within as well as between 82 countries (Brand and Boardman, 2006; Druckman and Jackson, 2008; 83 Ermoliev et al., 2000). All these aspects combine to push the arguments 84 towards tradable permits. Whilst the set up, administration and management 85 costs of such a scheme are anticipated to be high, they might be expected to 86 fall over time as in the case of road user charging systems (Raux, 2008), but 87 are still likely to be higher than the costs of implementing a CT. The 88 arguments in favour of CT generally focus on the clarity of the price signal, the 89 ease of implementation and the generation and use of revenues for 90 distributional purposes (Baranzini et al., 2000). However, whilst theory might provide some insights into the attractiveness of 100 PCT and CT, it is ultimately personal preference that determines their 101 acceptability and the impact of specific scheme features on this acceptability. 102 Some PCT scheme designs might be regarded as fairer (for example, wi...