Summary 1.In long-lived animals with delayed maturity, the non-breeding component of the population may play an important role in buffering the effects of stochastic mortality. Populations of colonial seabirds often consist of more than 50% non-breeders, yet because they spend much of their early life at sea, we understand little about their impact on the demographic process. 2. Using multistate capture-mark-recapture techniques, we analyse a long-term data set of individually identifiable common guillemots, Uria aalge Pont., to assess factors influencing their immature survival and two-stage recruitment process. 3. Analysis of the distribution of ringed common guillemots during the non-breeding season, separated by age classes, revealed that all age classes were potentially at risk from four major oil spills. However, the youngest age class (0-3 years) were far more widely spread than birds 4-6 years old, which were more widely spread than birds aged 6 and over. Therefore the chance of encountering an oil spill was age-dependent. 4. A 2-year compound survival estimate for juvenile guillemots was weakly negatively correlated with winter sea-surface temperature, but was not influenced by oil spills. Non-breeder survival did not vary significantly over time. 5. In years following four oil spills, juvenile recruitment was almost double the value in non-oil-spill years. Recent work from Skomer Island showed a doubling of adult mortality associated with major oil spills, which probably reduced competition at the breeding colony, allowing increased immature recruitment to compensate for these losses. We discuss the implications of compensatory recruitment for assessing the impact of oil pollution incidents.

Oil spills often spell disaster for marine birds caught in slicks. However, the impact of oil pollution on seabird population parameters is poorly known because oil spills usually occur in wintering areas remote from breeding colonies where birds may be distributed over a wide area, and because it is difficult to separate the effects of oil pollution from the effect of natural environmental variation on seabird populations. Using a long-term data set we show that over-winter survival of adult common guillemots (Uria aalge) is negatively affected by both the incidence of four major oil-spills in their wintering grounds and high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. After controlling for the effect of the NAO index, we show that winter mortality of adult guillemots is doubled by major oil pollution incidents. Our results demonstrate that oil pollution can have wide-scale impacts on marine ecosystems that can be quantified using populations of marked individuals to estimate survival.

We present a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, SeaMaST (Seabird Mapping and Sensitivity Tool), to provide evidence on the use of sea areas by seabirds and inshore waterbirds in English territorial waters, mapping their relative sensitivity to offshore wind farms. SeaMaST is a freely available evidence source for use by all connected to the offshore wind industry and will assist statutory agencies in assessing potential risks to seabird populations from planned developments. Data were compiled from offshore boat and aerial observer surveys spanning the period 1979–2012. The data were analysed using distance analysis and Density Surface Modelling to produce predicted bird densities across a grid covering English territorial waters at a resolution of 3 km×3 km. Coefficients of Variation were estimated for each grid cell density, as an indication of confidence in predictions. Offshore wind farm sensitivity scores were compiled for seabird species using English territorial waters. The comparative risks to each species of collision with turbines and displacement from operational turbines were reviewed and scored separately, and the scores were multiplied by the bird density estimates to produce relative sensitivity maps. The sensitivity maps reflected well the amassed distributions of the most sensitive species. SeaMaST is an important new tool for assessing potential impacts on seabird populations from offshore development at a time when multiple large areas of development are proposed which overlap with many seabird species’ ranges. It will inform marine spatial planning as well as identifying priority areas of sea usage by marine birds. Example SeaMaST outputs are presented.

The balance between economic growth and wildlife conservation is a priority for many governments. Enhancing realism in assessment of population‐level impacts of anthropogenic mortality can help achieve this balance. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is commonly applied to investigate population vulnerability, but outcomes of PVA are sensitive to formulations of density‐dependence, environmental stochasticity and life history. Current practice in marine assessments is to use precautionary models that assume no compensation from density‐dependence or rescue‐effects via “re‐seeding” from other colonies. However, if we could empirically quantify regulatory population processes, the responses of populations to additional anthropogenic mortality may be assessed with more realism in PVA. Using Bayesian state‐space models fitted to population time series from three sympatric seabird populations, selected for varied life histories, we inferred the extent to which their dynamics are driven by environmental stochasticity and density‐dependence. Based on these inferences, we conducted an exhaustive PVA across credible parameterizations for intrinsic and extrinsic population regulation, simulated as a closed and re‐seeded system. Scenarios of anthropogenic mortality, along a sliding scale of precaution, were applied both proportionally and as a fixed quota using Potential Biological Removal (PBR). Baseline results from fitting revealed clear environmental regulation in two of our three species. Crucially, we found that for our empirically derived, realistic model parameterizations there are risks of decline to real populations even under very precautionary mortality scenarios. We find that PBR is dubious in application as a sustainable tool for population assessment when we account for regulation. Closed versus re‐seeded models showed a large divergence in outcomes, with sharper declines in closed simulations. Fixed‐quota mortality typically induced greater population declines comparative to proportional mortality, subject to regulation and re‐seeding. Synthesis and applications. Practitioners using arbitrary formulations of population regulation risk over‐precaution (economic constraint) or under‐precaution (endangering populations). The demands of increased economic development and preservation of wildlife require that methodologies apply techniques that confer reality and rigour to assessment. The current practice of employing models lacking density‐dependence and empirical environmental information imposes limitations in the efficacy of estimating impacts. Here, we provide a method to quantify the conditions that predominantly regulate a population and exacerbate the risk of decline from anthropogenic mortality. It is in the interests of both developers and conservationists to apply methods in population impact assessments that capture realism in the processes driving population dynamics.

Arctic regions are expected to experience pronounced changes in climate during the current century. Large numbers of waterfowl breed in these regions, and any climate induced changes are likely to have consequences for their demographics. Moreover, environmental changes experienced during migration and on the wintering grounds may also have impacts but remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of climate variation during breeding, migration and wintering, while controlling for possible effects of mammalian predation and density dependence on the reproduction of Svalbard breeding barnacle geese Branta leucopsis using 40 years of observations. Breeding success was significantly positively correlated with temperature on both the wintering grounds (Scotland) and breeding grounds (Svalbard), but negatively correlated with the number of days of strong cross‐winds during the northward migration period. These factors remained significant when controlling for a strong negative effect of population size. Goose reproduction on Svalbard was also linked to fluctuations in arctic fox Alopex lagopus populations occurring elsewhere in the arctic. This reveals the importance of mammalian predation, which may vary as a non‐linear function of conditions within the wider arctic region. Climate predictions were used to project barnacle goose reproduction and hence the population until 2050. These simulations suggest the population will grow at between 1% and 2.7% per year, in response to increasing temperatures. However, it is harder to predict how changes in other factors, such as reductions in sea ice, may impact on arctic breeding birds.