BackgroundRegional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality.MethodsAlcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010–11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed.ResultsPer adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively.ConclusionsThis study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.

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BackgroundMany public health interventions cannot be evaluated using randomised controlled trials so they rely on the assessment of observational data. Techniques for evaluating public health interventions using observational data include interrupted time series analysis, panel data regression-based approaches, regression discontinuity and instrumental variable approaches. The inclusion of a counterfactual improves causal inference for approaches based on time series analysis, but the selection of a suitable counterfactual or control area can be problematic. The synthetic control method builds a counterfactual using a weighted combination of potential control units.MethodsWe explain the synthetic control method, summarise its use in health research to date, set out its advantages, assumptions and limitations and describe its implementation through a case study of life expectancy following German reunification.ResultsAdvantages of the synthetic control method are that it offers an approach suitable when there is a small number of treated units and control units and it does not rely on parallel preimplementation trends like difference in difference methods. The credibility of the result relies on achieving a good preimplementation fit for the outcome of interest between treated unit and synthetic control. If a good preimplementation fit is established over an extended period of time, a discrepancy in the outcome variable following the intervention can be interpreted as an intervention effect. It is critical that the synthetic control is built from a pool of potential controls that are similar to the treated unit. There is currently no consensus on what constitutes a ‘good fit’ or how to judge similarity. Traditional statistical inference is not appropriate with this approach, although alternatives are available. From our review, we noted that the synthetic control method has been underused in public health.ConclusionsSynthetic control methods are a valuable addition to the range of approaches for evaluating public health interventions when randomisation is impractical. They deserve to be more widely applied, ideally in combination with other methods so that the dependence of findings on particular assumptions can be assessed.

Information on the rate and spectrum of snowboarding injuries is limited. This 4-year prospective study at 3 major Australian ski resorts assesses incidence and patterns of snowboarding injuries, particularly in relation to skill level and footwear. Ski injury data were collected for the same period. In a predominantly male study population (men:women, 3:1), 276 snowboarding injuries were reported; 58% occurred in novices. Fifty-seven percent of injuries were in the lower limbs, 30% in the upper limbs. The most common injuries were sprains (53%), fractures (24%), and contusions (12%). Comparing skiers' versus snowboarders' injuries, snowboarders had 2.4 times as many fractures, particularly to the upper limbs (21% versus 35% of upper limb injuries), fewer knee injuries (23% versus 44% of lower limb injuries), but more ankle injuries (23% versus 6% of lower limb injuries). Ankle injuries were more common with soft-shell boots, worn most by intermediate and advanced riders. Knee injuries and distal tibial fractures were more common with hard-shell boots, worn most by novices. Overall, novices had more upper limb fractures and knee injuries; intermediate and advanced riders had more ankle injuries. Falls were the principal mode of injury. To prevent injury, beginners should use "hybrid" or soft-shell boots and take lessons.

BackgroundInjuries sustained by military recruits during initial training impede training progression and military readiness while increasing financial costs. This study investigated training-related injuries and injury risk factors among British Army infantry recruits.MethodsRecruits starting infantry training at the British Army Infantry Training Centre between September 2008 and March 2010 were eligible to take part. Information regarding lifestyle behaviours and injury history was collected using the Military Pre-training Questionnaire. Sociodemographic, anthropometric, physical fitness and injury (lower limb and lower back) data were obtained from Army databases. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to explore the association between time to first training injury and potential risk factors.Results58% (95% CI 55% to 60%) of 1810 recruits sustained at least 1 injury during training. Overuse injuries were more common than traumatic injuries (65% and 35%, respectively). The lower leg accounted for 81% of all injuries, and non-specific soft tissue damage was the leading diagnosis (55% of all injuries). Injuries resulted in 122 (118 to 126) training days lost per 1000 person-days. Slower 2.4 km run time, low body mass, past injury and shin pain were independently associated with higher risk of any injury.ConclusionsThere was a high incidence of overuse injuries in British Army recruits undertaking infantry training. Recruits with lower pretraining fitness levels, low body mass and past injuries were at higher risk. Faster 2.4 km run time performance and minimal body mass standards should be considered for physical entry criteria.

To determine if sheep scrapie agent(s) in the United States would induce a disease in cattle resembling bovine spongiform encephalopathy, 18 newborn calves were inoculated intracerebrally with a pooled suspension of brain from 9 sheep with scrapie. Half of the calves were euthanatized 1 year after inoculation. All calves kept longer than 1 year became severely lethargic and demonstrated clinical signs of motor neuron dysfunction that were manifest as progressive stiffness, posterior paresis, general weakness, and permanent recumbency. The incubation period was 14-18 months, and the clinical course was 1-5 months. The brain from each calf was examined for lesions and for protease-resistant prion protein. Lesions were subtle, but a disease-specific isoform of the prion protein was present in the brain of all calves. Neither signs nor lesions were characteristic of those for bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

SummaryBackgroundDrink driving is an important risk factor for road traffic accidents (RTAs), which cause high levels of morbidity and mortality globally. Lowering the permitted blood alcohol concentration (BAC) for drivers is a common public health intervention that is enacted in countries and jurisdictions across the world. In Scotland, on Dec 5, 2014, the BAC limit for drivers was reduced from 0·08 g/dL to 0·05 g/dL. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of this change on RTAs and alcohol consumption.MethodsIn this natural experiment, we used an observational, comparative interrupted time-series design by use of data on RTAs and alcohol consumption in Scotland (the interventional group) and England and Wales (the control group). We obtained weekly counts of RTAs from police accident records and we estimated weekly off-trade (eg, in supermarkets and convenience stores) and 4-weekly on-trade (eg, in bars and restaurants) alcohol consumption from market research data. We also used data from automated traffic counters as denominators to calculate RTA rates. We estimated the effect of the intervention on RTAs by use of negative binomial panel regression and on alcohol consumption outcomes by use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Our primary outcome was weekly rates of RTAs in Scotland, England, and Wales. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN38602189.FindingsWe assessed the weekly rate of RTAs and alcohol consumption between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2016, before and after the BAC limit came into effect on Dec 5, 2014. After the reduction in BAC limits for drivers in Scotland, we found no significant change in weekly RTA rates after adjustment for seasonality and underlying temporal trend (rate ratio 1·01, 95% CI 0·94–1·08; p=0.77) or after adjustment for seasonality, the underlying temporal trend, and the driver characteristics of age, sex, and socioeconomic deprivation (1·00, 0·96–1·06; p=0·73). Relative to RTAs in England and Wales, where the reduction in BAC limit for drivers did not occur, we found a 7% increase in weekly RTA rates in Scotland after this reduction in BAC limit for drivers (1·07, 1·02–1·13; p=0·007 in the fully-adjusted model). Similar findings were observed for serious or fatal RTAs and single-vehicle night-time RTAs. The change in legislation in Scotland was associated with no change in alcohol consumption, measured by per-capita off-trade sales (−0·3%, −1·7 to 1·1; p=0·71), but a 0·7% decrease in alcohol consumption measured by per-capita on-trade sales (−0·7%, −0·8 to −0·5; p<0·0001).InterpretationLowering the driving BAC limit to 0·05 g/dL from 0·08 g/dL in Scotland was not associated with a reduction in RTAs, but this change was associated with a small reduction in per-capita alcohol consumption from on-trade alcohol sales. One plausible explanation is that the legislative change was not suitably enforced—for example with random breath testing measures. Our findings suggest that changing the legal BAC limit for drivers in isolation does not impr...

Background and Aims On 1 May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength‐based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, across all alcoholic beverages. The legislation contains a sunset clause meaning a comprehensive mixed‐methods evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes will inform whether it will continue beyond its sixth year. In this study, we assessed the impact of MUP on off‐trade alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after its first year. Design, Setting and Participants Controlled interrupted time–series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales among off‐trade retailers in Scotland in the year after it was introduced, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on‐trade alcohol sales and substitution between beverage categories as covariates. Measurements Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off‐trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2019, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. Findings The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.2–4.9%] reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. In unadjusted analysis, the introduction of MUP was associated with a 2.0% (95% CI = 0.4–3.6%) reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales per adult in Scotland. In EW, there was a 2.4% (95% CI = 0.8–4.0%) increase during the same time‐period. The reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of spirits, cider and perry beverage categories. Conclusion The implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland in 2018 appears to have been associated with a reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales after its first year.