Most theories of turnover in organizations have concentrated on factors that can only be measured after employees have been hired, even though much research has suggested that factors available prior to employment may predict turnover. This research investigated several of those pre-employment factors. Results of three different analytic techniques suggested that applicant employment history, whether applicants had friends at the organization, and interview ratings were reliable predictors of turnover, as was a test of manual dexterity. Implications of the results for current theories of the turnover process are discussed. Selecting for Retention-1 1 Most of the current theories of turnover in organizations have emphasized attitudinal factors that become salient after employees have been hired. For example, Hom and Griffeth's (1991) model places job satisfaction as the beginning state in the process leading to turnover. However their model has little to say about the etiology of the differences in satisfaction that lead to differences in turnover. In comparison, Mitchell, Holtom, and Lee (2001) acknowledged that an accumulation of job dissatisfaction was one possible beginning of the turnover process but proposed that so-called "shocks"-unexpected events that cause employees to begin thinking about turning over-might initiate turnover processes in lieu of job satisfaction. However, in their model, as in Hom and Griffeth's (1991) model, the factors primarily responsible for the initiation of the turnover process are factors that, like job dissatisfaction, are assumed to occur after employee selection. While it may be true that job satisfaction is the proximal initiator of the processes that lead to turnover, there are both theoretical and empirical reasons for turnover researchers to investigate factors that occur prior to employment. First, there is mounting evidence linking job satisfaction to dispositions that exist prior to employment. This evidence suggests that job satisfaction may very well be the consequence of factors present at time of selection. Secondly, the predictors of turnover at the time of selection are those that selection specialists can use most effectively to manage turnover. The focus of the research presented here is on factors measurable at time of selection. Although there have been many studies of the efficacy of such factors, recent meta-analyses have found little evidence for the usefulness of many of them (Cotton & Tuttle, 1986; Griffeth, Hom,
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