Summary Trait‐based approaches have improved our understanding of plant evolution, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. A major challenge for the upcoming decades is to understand the functions and evolution of early life‐history traits, across levels of organization and ecological strategies. Although a variety of seed traits are critical for dispersal, persistence, germination timing and seedling establishment, only seed mass has been considered systematically. Here we suggest broadening the range of morphological, physiological and biochemical seed traits to add new understanding on plant niches, population dynamics and community assembly. The diversity of seed traits and functions provides an important challenge that will require international collaboration in three areas of research. First, we present a conceptual framework for a seed ecological spectrum that builds upon current understanding of plant niches. We then lay the foundation for a seed‐trait functional network, the establishment of which will underpin and facilitate trait‐based inferences. Finally, we anticipate novel insights and challenges associated with incorporating diverse seed traits into predictive evolutionary ecology, community ecology and applied ecology. If the community invests in standardized seed‐trait collection and the implementation of rigorous databases, major strides can be made at this exciting frontier of functional ecology.

In order to predict the long-term consequences of climate change, it is necessary to link future environmental changes to mechanisms that control plant population processes. This information can then be incorporated into strategies to more accurately model climate change impacts on species or to estimate future extinction risks. We examined the impact of increased temperatures on the longevity and dynamics of the persistent soil seed banks of eight ephemeral species from arid Australia. We found that the predicted global temperature increases under climate change will be reflected in increased soil temperatures, and that seeds in the soil seed bank will be exposed to long durations of high temperatures over the summer months. Three of the eight species studied had significantly greater levels of germination after exposure to predicted increased soil temperatures. Another species displayed a dramatic decrease in seed viability after such exposure. The capacity of such species to use the seed bank to bet hedge against rainfall events that cause germination but are insufficient to allow plant maturation, is compromised by increased germinability and subsequent loss or reduction of seed bank persistence. These predicted changes in the dynamics of soil seed banks increase the risk of local extinctions of these species, while the composition of the community may be altered by changes in species abundance. Our results show that the risk spreading mechanism provided by persistent seed banks could be compromised by the mechanistic impact of forecast temperature increases in arid habitats, and highlight the need to understand mechanisms that control population dynamics when attempting to address likely future impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Variation in dormancy thresholds among species is rarely studied but may provide a basis to better understand the mechanisms controlling population persistence. Incorporating dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds into existing trait frameworks could improve predictions regarding seed bank persistence, and subsequently species resilience in response to fire, climate change and anthropogenic management. A key ecological strategy for many species from fire-prone ecosystems is the possession of a long-lived seed bank, ensuring recovery after fire. Physical dormancy is dominant in these ecosystems and maintaining this dormancy is directly linked to seed bank persistence. We identified a suite of seed-related factors relevant to maintaining populations in fire-prone regions for 14 co-occurring physically dormant species. We measured variation in initial levels of dormancy and then applied experimental heating treatments, based on current seasonal temperatures and those occurring during fires, to seeds of all study species. Additionally, higher seasonal temperature treatments were applied to assess response of seeds to temperatures projected under future climate scenarios. Levels of germination response and mortality were determined to assess how tightly germination response was bound to either fire or seasonal cues. Six species were found to have dormancy cues bound to temperatures that only occur during fires (80°C and above) and were grouped as having obligate pyrogenic dormancy release. The remaining species, classified as having facultative pyrogenic dormancy, had lower temperature dormancy thresholds and committed at least 30% of seeds to germinate after summer-temperature treatments. Evidence from this study supports including dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds as an attribute for identifying functional types. High temperature thresholds for breaking dormancy, found in our obligate pyrogenic group, appear to be a fire-adapted trait, while we predict that species in the facultative group are most at risk to increased seed bank decay resulting from elevated soil temperatures under projected climate change.

Abstract"The strong mechanistic relationship between climatic factors and seed dormancy and germination suggests that forecast climatic changes will significantly affect seed bank persistence. This review focuses on the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall and fire regimes on the longevity of long-term persistent seed-banks. Currently, there are few studies investigating the mechanistic responses of demographic processes, such as seed-bank dynamics, to forecast climate change. However, from the work that has been published, several key points have been highlighted. First, increased air temperatures will produce significantly higher soil temperatures in open and sparsely vegetated habitats. Some evidence shows that this could accelerate the decline of seed viability and compromise bet-hedging strategies of species in dryland regions. Second, changes to rainfall season may determine the relative success of recruitment, with lower levels of success producing net losses to seed bank longevity. Finally, higher temperatures are likely to produce increased fire frequency, compromising the persistence of plant populations dependent on long-lived seed banks. Improving our understanding of both the mechanistic response and adaptive capacity of seed banks to climate change will provide a solid basis for improved predictions of future species distributions and risk of extinction, particularly in ecosystems subjected to temporally stochastic disturbances. It is necessary to develop functional groups based on key life-history trait responses to changing environmental conditions, to enable broader-scale predictions of distribution and persistence in the future." AbstractThe strong mechanistic relationship between climatic factors and seed dormancy and germination suggests that forecast climatic changes will significantly affect seed bank persistence. This review focuses on the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall and fire regimes on the longevity of long-term persistent seed-banks. Currently, there are few studies investigating the mechanistic responses of demographic processes, such as seed-bank dynamics, to forecast climate change. However, from the work that has been published, several key points have been highlighted. First, increased air temperatures will produce significantly higher soil temperatures in open and sparsely vegetated habitats. Some evidence shows that this could accelerate the decline of seed viability and compromise bet-hedging strategies of species in dryland regions. Second, changes to rainfall season may determine the relative success of recruitment, with lower levels of success producing net losses to seed bank longevity. Finally, higher temperatures are likely to produce increased fire frequency, compromising the persistence of plant populations dependent on longlived seed banks. Improving our understanding of both the mechanistic response and adaptive capacity of seed banks to climate change will provide a solid basis for improved predictions of future species distributi...