Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.

The effect of high frequency fire regimes on a coastal heathland north of Sydney was examined. Plant community composition and species frequency and density (of a subset of species) were compared among sites burnt by either one, two or three fires in the period 1988-1990 inclusive. Constrained ordination indicated that number of fires had a significant effect on floristic composition. Site variables also had a significant effect on floristics and frequency and accounted for a larger proportion of variation than did number of fires. Analyses of deviance indicated that frequency in 13 species was unaffected by fire regimes or site factors. Site factors significantly affected frequency in 42 species. Frequency in seven species was significantly affected by fire regimes (no site effect). In six of these, frequency was lower in areas subjected to either two or three fires compared to one fire. Three of these species were obligate seeders. Frequency in the other species (a herbaceous resprouter) was significantly higher in the area subjected to two fires. There was no significant effect of fire on species richness. Densities of seven out of a subset of eight species were also significantly affected by fire (two obligate seeder spp.) and site factors (four spp.), Significantly lower densities were related to multiple fires. The study indicated that regimes of frequent fire can deplete populations of some heathland species with the dominant shrub species, Banksia ericifolia L.f., being most affected.

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Succession has been a focal point of ecological research for over a century, but thus far has been poorly explored through the lens of modern phylogenetic and trait-based approaches to community assembly. The vast majority of studies conducted to date have comprised static analyses where communities are observed at a single snapshot in time. Long-term datasets present a vantage point to compare established and emerging theoretical predictions on the phylogenetic and functional trajectory of communities through succession. We investigated within, and between, community measures of phylogenetic and functional diversity in a fire-prone heathland along a 21 year time series. Contrary to widely held expectations that increased competition through succession should inhibit the coexistence of species with high niche overlap, plots became more phylogenetically and functionally clustered with time since fire. There were significant directional shifts in individual traits through time indicating deterministic successional processes associated with changing abiotic and/or biotic conditions. However, relative to the observed temporal rate of taxonomic turnover, both phylogenetic and functional turnover were comparatively low, suggesting a degree of functional redundancy among close relatives. These results contribute to an emerging body of evidence indicating that limits to the similarity of coexisting species are rarely observed at fine spatial scales.