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Objective To determine the subsequent pattern of emergency admissions in older people with a history of frequent emergency admissions. Design Analysis of routine admissions data from NHS hospitals using hospital episode statistics (HES) in England. Subjects Individual patients aged ≥ 65, ≥ 75, and ≥ 85 who had at least two emergency admissions in 1997-8. Main outcome measures Emergency admissions and bed use in this "high risk" cohort of patients were counted for the next five years and compared with the general population of the same age. No account was taken of mortality as the analysis was designed to estimate the future use of beds in this high risk cohort. Results Over four to five years, admission rates and bed use in the high risk cohorts fell to the mean rate for older people. Although patients ≥ 65 with two or more such admissions were responsible for 38% of admissions in the index year, they were responsible for fewer than 10% of admissions in the following year and just over 3% five years later. Conclusion Patients with multiple emergency admissions are often identified as a high risk group for subsequent admission and substantial claims are made for interventions designed to avoid emergency admission in such patients. Simply monitoring admission rates cannot assess interventions designed to reduce admission among frail older people as rates fall without any intervention. Comparison with a matched control group is necessary. Wider benefits than reduced admissions should be considered when introducing intensive case management of older people.

Objective To estimate the impact of a national primary care pay for performance scheme, the Quality and Outcomes Framework in England, on emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs).Design Controlled longitudinal study.Setting English National Health Service between 1998/99 and 2010/11. Participants Populations registered with each of 6975 family practices in England.Main outcome measures Year specific differences between trend adjusted emergency hospital admission rates for incentivised ACSCs before and after the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework scheme and two comparators: non-incentivised ACSCs and non-ACSCs.Results Incentivised ACSC admissions showed a relative reduction of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 3.8%) in the first year of the Quality and Outcomes Framework compared with ACSCs that were not incentivised. This increased to a relative reduction of 8.0% (6.9% to 9.1%) in 2010/11. Compared with conditions that are not regarded as being influenced by the quality of ambulatory care (non-ACSCs), incentivised ACSCs also showed a relative reduction in rates of emergency admissions of 2.8% (2.0% to 3.6%) in the first year increasing to 10.9% (10.1% to 11.7%) by 2010/11. ConclusionsThe introduction of a major national pay for performance scheme for primary care in England was associated with a decrease in emergency admissions for incentivised conditions compared with conditions that were not incentivised. Contemporaneous health service changes seem unlikely to have caused the sharp change in the trajectory of incentivised ACSC admissions immediately after the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. The decrease seems larger than would be expected from the changes in the process measures that were incentivised, suggesting that the pay for performance scheme may have had impacts on quality of care beyond the directly incentivised activities.

Objective. To investigate the association between indicators of quality of diabetic management in English family practices and emergency hospital admissions for shortterm complications of diabetes. Study Setting. 7.4 percent) and moderate (7.4 percent oHbA1c 10 percent) glycemic control. Covariates included diabetes prevalence, baseline admission rates, socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic characteristics. Data. Practice quality measures extracted from practice records linked with practicelevel hospital admissions data and practice-level covariates data. Principal Findings. Practices with 1 percent more patients with moderate rather than poor glycemic control on average had 1.9 percent (95 percent CI: 1.1-2.6 percent) lower rates of emergency admissions for acute hyperglycemic complications. Having more patients with good rather than moderate control was not associated with lower admissions. There was no association of moderate or good control with hypoglycemic admissions. Conclusion. Cross-sectionally, family practices with better quality of diabetes care had fewer emergency admissions for short-term complications of diabetes. Over time, after controlling for national trends in admissions, improvements in quality in a family practice were associated with a reduction in its admissions.

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BackgroundInflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic disease placing a large health and economic burden on health systems worldwide. The treatment landscape is complex with multiple strategies to induce and maintain remission while avoiding long-term complications. The extent to which rising treatment costs, due to expensive biologic agents, are offset by improved outcomes and fewer hospitalisations and surgeries needs to be evaluated. This systematic review aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for IBD.Materials and methodsA systematic literature search was performed in March 2017 to identify economic evaluations of pharmacological and surgical interventions, for adults diagnosed with Crohn’s disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). Costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were adjusted to reflect 2015 purchasing power parity (PPP). Risk of bias assessments and a narrative synthesis of individual study findings are presented.ResultsForty-nine articles were included; 24 on CD and 25 on UC. Infliximab and adalimumab induction and maintenance treatments were cost-effective compared to standard care in patients with moderate or severe CD; however, in patients with conventional-drug refractory CD, fistulising CD and for maintenance of surgically-induced remission ICERs were above acceptable cost-effectiveness thresholds. In mild UC, induction of remission using high dose mesalazine was dominant compared to standard dose. In UC refractory to conventional treatments, infliximab and adalimumab induction and maintenance treatment were not cost-effective compared to standard care; however, ICERs for treatment with vedolizumab and surgery were favourable.ConclusionsWe found that, in general, while biologic agents helped improve outcomes, they incurred high costs and therefore were not cost-effective, particularly for use as maintenance therapy. The cost-effectiveness of biologic agents may improve as market prices fall and with the introduction of biosimilars. Future research should identify optimal treatment strategies reflecting routine clinical practice, incorporate indirect costs and evaluate lifetime costs and benefits.

Objectives To develop a formula for allocating resources for commissioning hospital care to all general practices in England based on the health needs of the people registered in each practice Design Multivariate prospective statistical models were developed in which routinely collected electronic information from 2005-6 and 2006-7 on individuals and the areas in which they lived was used to predict their costs of hospital care in the next year, 2007-8. Data on individuals included all diagnoses recorded at any inpatient admission. Models were developed on a random sample of 5 million people and validated on a second random sample of 5 million people and a third sample of 5 million people drawn from a random sample of practices. Results Models including person level information (age, sex, and ICD-10 codes diagnostic recorded) and a range of area level information (such as socioeconomic deprivation and supply of health facilities) were most predictive of costs. After accounting for person level variables, area level variables added little explanatory power. The best models for resource allocation could predict upwards of 77% of the variation in costs at practice level, and about 12% at the person level. With these models, the predicted costs of about a third of practices would exceed or undershoot the actual costs by 10% or more. Smaller practices were more likely to be in these groups. SettingConclusions A model was developed that performed well by international standards, and could be used for allocations to practices for commissioning. The best formulas, however, could predict only about 12% of the variation in next year's costs of most inpatient and outpatient NHS care for each individual. Person-based diagnostic data significantly added to the predictive power of the models.

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