^^^^Different European countries pay very different interest rates on their public debts. Will these differences disappear if and when exchange rates come to be irrevocably fixed in the European Monetary Union? Or rather will default risks in the high debt countries keep interest rates from converging? To answer this question, this paper investigates whether a perceived default risk is already priced by the market The paper compares the interest rates on public and private financial instruments denominated in the same currencies in 12 OECD countries. A strong correlation is found between the size of public indebtedness and the spread between public and private rates of return. This correlation suggests that the markets perceive a default risk on the public debt of some OECD countries. The size of this default risk is however very small.

Russian and Baltic Economies -The Week in ReviewA two-page weekly review of the previous week's focal events in Russia and the Baltic states. Russian Economy -The Month in ReviewA four-page review with analysis of developments in Russia's economy, fiscal policy and financial markets. Baltic Economies -The Quarter in ReviewA four-page review with analysis of recent economic developments in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. BOFIT Discussion PapersA series devoted to transition issues. Contains academic studies on transition economics by BOFIT economists and guest researchers. BOFIT OnlineAn electronic publishing series devoted to transition issues. The focus is on descriptive work on economic policy and economic developments in transition economies. Papers are either in English or Finnish.

We examine how the composition of public debt, broken down by currency, maturity, holder profile and marketability, has responded to major debt accumulation and consolidation episodes during 1900-2011. Covering thirteen advanced economies, we focus on debt structure shifts that occurred around the two World Wars and global economic downturns, and the subsequent debt consolidations. Notwithstanding data gaps, we are able to recover some broad common patterns. Episodes of large debt accumulation-essentially, large increases in debt supply-were typically absorbed by increases in short-term, foreign currency-denominated, and banking-systemheld debt. However, this pattern did not hold during the debt build-ups starting in the 1980s and 1990s, which were compositionally skewed toward long-term local-currency debt. We attribute this change to higher structural demand for sovereign paper, linked to capital account liberalization in advanced economies, the emergence of a large contractual saving sector, and innovative sovereign debt products. With regard to debt consolidations, we find support for the financial repression-cum-inflation channel for post World War II debt reductions. However, the scope for a repeat of this strategy appears limited unless financial liberalization and globalization were materially rolled back or the current globally agreed monetary policy regime built around price stability abandoned. Neither are significant favorable structural demand shifts, as witnessed in the 1980s and 1990s, likely.

Poland stands out among transition economies as having experienced a relatively short and shallow contraction followed by sustained, vigorous growth. This paper examines various aspects of Poland's growth performance from 1992 through 1998 at the macroeconomic level as well as across sectors and regions. It discusses the sources of Poland's growth, showing that early in the decade, improved resource utilization was the paramount determinant, while factor accumulation, supported by rising foreign direct investment inflows, took on increasing importance in the later 1990s. Comparative Economic Studies (2001) 43, 1–33. doi:10.1057/ces.2001.6

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