A retrospective review was conducted of the 2003 disciplinary records of close-custody inmates ( N = 24,514) in the Florida Department of Corrections. The frequency of various forms of violent misconduct was inversely related to the severity of this prison violence. A logistic regression analysis controlling for other factors demonstrated that younger age, shorter sentence, prison gang affiliation, prior prison violence, and prior prison term were predictive of violent institutional misconduct. Conversely, older age, longer sentence, and violent offense of conviction were associated with lower rates of violent prison infractions. Actuarial models constructed from the logistic regression analysis were modestly successful in predicting institutional misconduct (area under the curve = .717 to .738, p < .001), whether predicting all infractions or violent misconduct of varying severity.
An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population (n = 132). Records of institutional violent misconduct of these 2,595 inmates were retrospectively examined for an 11-year period (1991 to 2002). Predictors affecting the likelihood of such misconduct included age, type and length of sentence, education, prior prison terms, prior probated sentences, and years served. The scale was modestly successful, as demonstrated by an overall omnibus area under the curve of .719. Double cross-validation demonstrated minimal shrinkage. The authors have termed this experimental scale the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison.
The impact of life-without-parole (LWOP) sentencing for inmate misconduct has important implications for inmate classification, prison management, capital sentencing determinations, and public policy considerations. This study seeks to illuminate these issues by comparing the disciplinary behavior of 1,897 inmates sentenced to LWOP in the Florida Department of Corrections to that of 7,147 inmates serving sentences of 10 to 30 or more years. The sample is restricted to inmates admitted between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2002, sentenced to a prison term of 10 years or longer, who remained in prison on December 31, 2003, and classified to close custody. The data show that the likelihood and pattern of disciplinary infractions and potentially violent rule infractions among LWOP inmates during 1998 to 2003 is broadly similar to that of other long-term inmates, supporting a conclusion that LWOP inmates act as a stabilizing rather than disruptive force in the prison environment.
An assertion that a capital offender will engage in future acts of criminal violence is a factor in determining "death worthiness" in many jurisdictions of the United States. The legislative conception and court affirmation of this issue as a capital consideration were products of the parole policy and prison capability of an earlier era as well as of the limitations of risk assessment methodology and findings at that time. The intuitive assumptions that support assertions of future dangerousness as a death penalty issue have been rendered irrelevant by changing prison conditions and parole policies or have been refuted by current findings. This raises important questions for a reasoned public policy in capital sentencing. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).
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