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Relatively few details of hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting ecology exist within the Arabian Gulf. Moreover, little is known about how their nesting dynamics compare to nesting populations throughout the rest of the world. Due to the extreme environmental setting, nesting ecology of hawksbills in the Arabian Gulf is of significant interest to researchers and conservationists. The current research reports on a long-term tagging and monitoring program undertaken at Fuwairit beach, Qatar. To investigate nesting behavior, site surveys and tagging were employed from 2010 to 2016. Presence of nests and clutch sizes were confirmed by excavation. Over the entire study period, nesting hawksbills had a mean curved carapace length of 70.8 cm (SD±2.8). A total 187 nests were confirmed, which contained a mean 78.9 eggs per clutch (SD±17.1), over an annual nesting season that lasted an average of 52.2 days (SD±6.3) from the start of April to the start of June. Meta-analysis with other global regions showed these characteristics to be significantly reduced when compared to nesting hawksbills from other populations. Meteorological data analysis showed air temperatures in the Arabian Gulf to increase on average 13.2°C (SD±0.26) from start to the end of nesting annually, which is significantly greater than other global nesting regions. Their smaller body size and reduced fecundity coupled with the extreme change in ambient air temperatures support the hypothesis that hawksbills in the region are more at risk than the already critically endangered hawksbill populations elsewhere in the world.

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Projected climate change is forecasted to have significant effects on biological systems worldwide. Marine turtles in particular may be vulnerable, as the sex of their offspring is determined by their incubating temperature, termed temperature-dependent sex determination. This study aimed to estimate historical, and forecast future, primary sex ratios of hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricata hatchlings at an important nesting ground in northeastern Qatar. Incubation temperatures from the Arabian/Persian Gulf were measured over 2 nesting seasons. Climate data from same period were regressed with nest temperatures to estimate incubation temperatures and hatchling sex ratios for the site from 1993 to 2100. Future hatchling sex ratios were estimated for 2 climate forecasts, one mid-range (SSP245) and one extreme (SSP585). Historical climate data showed female-biased sex ratios of 73.2 ± 12.1% from 1993 to 2017. Female biases from 2018 to 2100 averaged 85.7% ± 6.7% under the mid-range scenario and 87.9% ± 5.4% under the high-range scenario. In addition, predicted female hatchling production was >90% from 2054 and 2052 for SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. These results show that hawksbill primary sex ratios in Qatar are at risk of significant feminization by the year 2100 and that hawksbill turtle incubation temperatures in an extreme, understudied environment are already comparable to those predicted in tropical rookeries during the latter half of the 21st century. These results can help conservationists predict primary sex ratios for hawksbill turtles in the region in the face of 21st-century climate change.

Mangroves are important sinks of organic carbon (C) and there is significant interest in their use for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Adverse impacts on organic carbon storage potential from future climate change and deforestation would devalue such ambitions, thus global projections of future change remains a priority research area. We modeled the effects of climate change on future C stocks and soil sequestration rates (CSR) under two climate scenarios (“business as usual”: SSP245 and high-emissions: SSP585). Model results were contrasted with CO2 equivalents (CO2e) emissions from past, present and future rates of deforestation on a country specific scale. For C stocks, we found climate change will increase global stocks by ∼7% under both climate scenarios and that this gain will exceed losses from deforestation by the end of the twenty-first century, largely due to shifts in rainfall. Major mangrove-holding countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Cuba, and Nigeria will increase national C stocks by > 10%. Under the high-end scenario, while a net global increase is still expected, elevated temperatures and wider temperature ranges are likely increase the risk of countries’ C stocks diminishing. For CSR, there will likely be a global reduction under both climate change scenarios: 12 of the top 20 mangrove-rich countries will see a drop in CSR. Modeling of published country level mangrove deforestation rates showed emissions have decreased from 141.4 to 6.4% of annual CSR since the 1980’s. Projecting current mangrove deforestation rates into the future resulted in a total of 678.50 ± 151.32 Tg CO2e emitted from 2012 to 2095. Reducing mangrove deforestation rates further would elevate the carbon benefit from climate change by 55–61%, to make the proposition of offsetting emissions through mangrove protection and restoration more attractive. These results demonstrate the positive benefits of mangrove conservation on national carbon budgets, and we identify the nations where incorporating mangrove conservation into their Nationally Defined Contributions offers a particularly rewarding route toward meeting their Glasgow Agreement commitments.

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