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Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions.

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.

The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or -012-0269-3 new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.Conserv (2012) 21:1651-1671 DOI 10.1007/s10531

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Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands.Identificación de Sitios Duraderos para la Conservación Usando la Diversidad del Paisaje y las Conexiones Locales para Estimar la Capacidad de Recuperación al Cambio ClimáticoResumenLos conservacionistas necesitan un método mediante el cual poder conservar la diversidad biológica mientras permiten que las especies y las comunidades se reorganicen con respecto al clima cambiante. Desarrollamos y probamos tal método, el cual basamos en características físicas asociadas con la diversidad ecológica y la capacidad de recuperación del sitio con respecto al cambio climático, en el noreste de Norteamérica. Mapeamos comprensivamente 30 escenarios geofísicos distintos basados en la geología y la elevación. Dentro de cada escenario geofísico identificamos sitios que estaban conectados por una cubierta natural y que tenían relativamente más microclimas indicados por la topografía diversa y los gradientes de elevación. Hicimos esto al puntuar cada hexágono de 450 ha en la región con estas dos características y al seleccionar aquellos que tuvieron una puntuación >SD 0.5 por encima del puntaje combinado promedio para cada escenario. Nuestra hipótesis fue que estos sitios con altas puntuaciones tuvieron la mayor capacidad de recuperación. Los comparamos con los sitios seleccionados por The Nature Conservancy por sus...

Connectivity models are useful tools that improve the ability of researchers and managers to plan land use for conservation and preservation. Most connectivity models function in a point-to-point or patch-to-patch fashion, limiting their use for assessing connectivity over very large areas. In large or highly fragmented systems, there may be so many habitat patches of interest that assessing connectivity among all possible combinations is prohibitive. To overcome these conceptual and practical limitations, we hypothesized that minor adaptation of the Circuitscape model can allow the creation of omnidirectional connectivity maps illustrating flow paths and variations in the ease of travel across a large study area. We tested this hypothesis in a 24,300 km2 study area centered on the Montérégie region near Montréal, Québec. We executed the circuit model in overlapping tiles covering the study region. Current was passed across the surface of each tile in orthogonal directions, and then the tiles were reassembled to create directional and omnidirectional maps of connectivity. The resulting mosaics provide a continuous view of connectivity in the entire study area at the full original resolution. We quantified differences between mosaics created using different tile and buffer sizes and developed a measure of the prominence of seams in mosaics formed with this approach. The mosaics clearly show variations in current flow driven by subtle aspects of landscape composition and configuration. Shown prominently in mosaics are pinch points, narrow corridors where organisms appear to be required to traverse when moving through the landscape. Using modest computational resources, these continuous, fine-scale maps of nearly unlimited size allow the identification of movement paths and barriers that affect connectivity. This effort develops a powerful new application of circuit models by pinpointing areas of importance for conservation, broadening the potential for addressing intriguing questions about resource use, animal distribution, and movement.