Genomic selection (GS) is a method to estimate the breeding values of individuals by using markers throughout the genome. We evaluated the accuracies of GS using data from fi ve traits on 446 oat (Avena sativa L.) lines genotyped with 1005 Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers and two GS methods (ridge regression-best linear unbiased prediction [RR-BLUP] and BayesCπ) under various training designs. Our objectives were to (i) determine accuracy under increasing marker density and training population size, (ii) assess accuracies when data is divided over time, and (iii) examine accuracy in the presence of population structure. Accuracy increased as the number of markers and training size become larger. Including older lines in the training population increased or maintained accuracy, indicating that older generations retained information useful for predicting validation populations. The presence of population structure affected accuracy: when training and validation subpopulations were closely related accuracy was greater than when they were distantly related, implying that linkage disequilibrium (LD) relationships changed across subpopulations. Across many scenarios involving large training populations, the accuracy of BayesCπ and RR-BLUP did not differ. This empirical study provided evidence regarding the application of GS to hasten the delivery of cultivars through the use of inexpensive and abundant molecular markers available to the public sector.T HE DECREASING COST of high-density molecular markers allows saturation of crop genomes with genetic markers and off ers an approach to predict genetic merit. Th ese markers can help capture the eff ects of many quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling polygenic traits regardless of location of the QTL in the genome by using linkage disequilibrium (LD), the nonrandom association of alleles at diff erent loci (Falconer and Mackay, 1996). Meuwissen et al. (2001) proposed genomic selection (GS) based on prediction of the genetic value of individuals or the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) from high-density markers positioned throughout the genome. Because GS includes all markers, major and polygenic eff ects can be captured, potentially explaining more genetic variance (Solberg et al., 2008). Th erefore, the objective of GS is to predict the breeding value of each individual instead of identifying QTL for use in a traditional marker-assisted selection (MAS) program.Selection methods can be evaluated by measuring accuracy, a major component of the response to selection equation, R = irσ A , in which R is the response, i is the selection intensity, r is the accuracy, and σ A is the additive genetic standard deviation (Falconer and Mackay, 1996). As a general term in statistics, accuracy is the degree of similarity

Aim  An understanding of the non‐breeding distribution and ecology of migratory species is necessary for successful conservation. Many seabirds spend the non‐breeding season far from land, and information on their distribution during this time is very limited. The black‐legged kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla, is a widespread and numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and Pacific, but breeding populations throughout the Atlantic range have declined recently. To help understand the reasons for the declines, we tracked adults from colonies throughout the Atlantic range over the non‐breeding season using light‐based geolocation. Location  North Atlantic. Methods  Geolocation data loggers were deployed on breeding kittiwakes from 19 colonies in 2008 and 2009 and retrieved in 2009 and 2010. Data from 236 loggers were processed and plotted using GIS. Size and composition of wintering populations were estimated using information on breeding population size. Results  Most tracked birds spent the winter in the West Atlantic, between Newfoundland and the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, including in offshore, deep‐water areas. Some birds (mainly local breeders) wintered in the North Sea and west of the British Isles. There was a large overlap in winter distributions of birds from different colonies, and colonies closer to each other showed larger overlap. We estimated that 80% of the 4.5 million adult kittiwakes in the Atlantic wintered west of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, with only birds from Ireland and western Britain staying mainly on the European side. Main conclusions  The high degree of mixing in winter of kittiwakes breeding in various parts of the Atlantic range implies that the overall population could be sensitive to potentially deteriorating environmental conditions in the West Atlantic, e.g. owing to lack of food or pollution. Our approach to estimating the size and composition of wintering populations should contribute to improved management of birds faced with such challenges.

Relationships between events in one period of the annual cycle and behaviour in subsequent seasons are key determinants of individual life histories and population dynamics. However, studying such associations is challenging, given the difficulties in following individuals across seasons, particularly in migratory species. Relationships between breeding performance and subsequent winter ecology are particularly poorly understood, yet are likely to be profoundly important because of the costs of reproduction. Using geolocation technology, we show that black-legged kittiwakes that experienced breeding failure left their colony in southeast Scotland earlier than successful breeders. Moreover, a greater proportion of unsuccessful breeders (94% versus 53% successful) travelled over 3000 km to the West Atlantic, whereas fewer visited the East Atlantic (31% versus 80% successful), less than 1000 km from the colony. The two groups did not differ in the timing of return to the colony the following spring. However, 58 per cent of males made a previously undescribed long-distance pre-breeding movement to the central Atlantic. Our results demonstrate important links between reproductive performance and winter distribution, with significant implications for population dynamics. Furthermore, macro-scale segregation associated with breeding outcome is relevant to defining important wintering areas, in particular among declining species experiencing increasingly regular breeding failure.

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Abstract. Population-level estimates of species' distributions can reveal fundamental ecological processes and facilitate conservation. However, these may be difficult to obtain for mobile species, especially colonial central-place foragers (CCPFs; e.g., bats, corvids, social insects), because it is often impractical to determine the provenance of individuals observed beyond breeding sites. Moreover, some CCPFs, especially in the marine realm (e.g., pinnipeds, turtles, and seabirds) are difficult to observe because they range tens to ten thousands of kilometers from their colonies. It is hypothesized that the distribution of CCPFs depends largely on habitat availability and intraspecific competition. Modeling these effects may therefore allow distributions to be estimated from samples of individual spatial usage. Such data can be obtained for an increasing number of species using tracking technology. However, techniques for estimating population-level distributions using the telemetry data are poorly developed. This is of concern because many marine CCPFs, such as seabirds, are threatened by anthropogenic activities. Here, we aim to estimate the distribution at sea of four seabird species, foraging from approximately 5,500 breeding sites in Britain and Ireland. To do so, we GPS-tracked a sample of 230 European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, 464 Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 178 Common Murres Uria aalge, and 281 Razorbills Alca torda from 13, 20, 12, and 14 colonies, respectively. Using Poisson point process habitat use models, we show that distribution at sea is dependent on (1) density-dependent competition among sympatric conspecifics (all species) and parapatric conspecifics (Kittiwakes and Murres); (2) habitat accessibility and coastal geometry, such that birds travel further from colonies with limited access to the sea; and (3) regional habitat availability. Using these models, we predict space use by birds from unobserved colonies and thereby map the distribution at sea of each species at both the colony and regional level. Space use by all four species' British breeding populations is concentrated in the coastal waters of Scotland, highlighting the need for robust conservation measures in this area. The techniques we present are applicable to any CCPF.

Daunt, Francis. 2016. Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in longterm ecological data? Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 (3). 666-676. 10.1111/1365-2664.12519 Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner.Page | 1 2. We tested whether long term abundance time series of 55 taxa (126 data sets) across multiple 34 trophic levels in marine and freshwater ecosystems showed: i) significant non-linear change in 35 abundance ("turning points") and ii) significant increases in variance and autocorrelation 36 ("EWIs"). For each data set we then quantified the prevalence of three cases: true positives 37 (EWI and associated turning point), false negatives (turning point but no associated EWI) and 38 false positives (EWI but no turning point).

Studies of the fine-scale use of foraging habitat are essential for understanding the role of seabirds in marine ecosystems. However, until recently, relationships between foraging and habitat usage were only possible at a coarse scale. We used miniaturized bird-borne digital still-picture camera loggers to obtain high-quality images of the foraging habitat used by 9 European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. Underwater images revealed that shags are almost exclusively benthic feeders, but used 2 very distinct foraging habitats: sandy areas and rocky areas with brittlestars, soft corals and kelp. We found no evidence that individuals specialize on a particular habitat. Birds were recorded in rocky and sandy areas over the course of a day and in some cases within a trip. Foraging behaviour differed markedly between habitats. In rocky areas birds foraged solitarily, over a wide range of depths (10 to 40 m) and travelled along the bottom while searching for bottom-living fish such as butterfish Pholis gunnellus. In contrast, shags using sandy habitat frequently fed with conspecifics, foraged mainly at 2 depths (24 or 32 m) and spent the bottom phase of the dive probing into the sand with their bill, presumably to catch lesser sandeels Ammodytes marinus, the major prey item in the diet. This study highlights the flexible foraging strategy of European shags and illustrates how image and dive data can be combined to improve our understanding of the factors influencing the foraging success of benthic feeders. KEY WORDS: Microhabitat · Image data · Prey capture · ShagResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

Differential phenological responses to climate among species are predicted to disrupt trophic interactions, but datasets to evaluate this are scarce. We compared phenological trends for species from 4 levels of a North Sea food web over 24 yr when sea surface temperature (SST) increased significantly. We found little consistency in phenological trends between adjacent trophic levels, no significant relationships with SST, and no significant pairwise correlations between predator and prey phenologies, suggesting that trophic mismatching is occurring. Finer resolution data on timing of peak energy demand (mid-chick-rearing) for 5 seabird species at a major North Sea colony were compared to modelled daily changes in length of 0-group (young of the year) lesser sandeels Ammodytes marinus. The date at which sandeels reached a given threshold length became significantly later during the study. Although the phenology of all the species except shags also became later, these changes were insufficient to keep pace with sandeel length, and thus mean length (and energy value) of 0-group sandeels at mid-chick-rearing showed net declines. The magnitude of declines in energy value varied among the seabirds, being more marked in species showing no phenological response (shag, 4.80 kJ) and in later breeding species feeding on larger sandeels (kittiwake, 2.46 kJ) where, due to the relationship between sandeel length and energy value being non-linear, small reductions in length result in relatively large reductions in energy. However, despite the decline in energy value of 0-group sandeels during chick-rearing, there was no evidence of any adverse effect on breeding success for any of the seabird species. Trophic mismatch appears to be prevalent within the North Sea pelagic food web, suggesting that ecosystem functioning may be disrupted.