Aims Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) has poor long-term prognosis. We assessed rates and predictors of outcome 10 years after an acute episode of HF. Methods and resultsThe Karolinska-Rennes (KaRen) study enrolled HFpEF patients with acute HF, ejection fraction ≥ 45%, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide > 300 ng/L in 2007-11. Clinical data were collected at enrolment and after 4-8 weeks including detailed echocardiography. Follow-up data were collected 10 years after study initiation, starting from 6 months after enrolment until 2018 assessed by telephone. Independent predictors of primary (all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization) and secondary (all-cause mortality) outcomes were assessed by multivariable Cox regression. Of 539 patients, long-term follow-up data were available for 397 patients [52% female; median (interquartile range) age 79 (73, 84) years]. Over a follow-up of 5.44 (2.06-7.89) years, 1, 3, 5, and 10 year mortality rates were 15%, 31%, 47%, and 74%, respectively, with an incidence rate of 130/1000 patient-years. The primary outcome was met in 84% of the population, with an incidence rate of 227/1000 patient-years. The independent predictors of the primary outcome were tricuspid regurgitation peak velocity (m/s) [hazard ratio 1.87 (1.34-2.62)], diabetes mellitus [1.75 (1.11-2.74)], and cancer [1.75 (1.01-3.03)] while female sex was associated with reduced risk [0.64 (0.41-0.98)]. Conclusions In HFpEF, 1, 3, 5, and 10 year mortality was 15%, 31%, 47%, and 74% and mortality or first HF hospitalization was 35%, 54%, 67%, and 84%, respectively. Independent predictors of mortality or HF hospitalization were tricuspid regurgitation peak velocity, diabetes mellitus, cancer, and male sex. In clinical management of HFpEF, attention should be paid to both cardiac and non-cardiac conditions.

Aims Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is associated with cardiovascular (CV) and non‐CV events, but long‐term risk is poorly studied. We assessed incidence and predictors of the long‐term CV and non‐CV events. Methods and results Patients presenting with acute HF, EF ≥ 45%, and N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide > 300 ng/L were enrolled in the Karolinska‐Rennes study in 2007–11 and were reassessed after 4–8 weeks in a stable state. Long‐term follow‐up was conducted in 2018. The Fine–Gray sub‐distribution hazard regression was used to detect predictors of CV and non‐CV deaths, investigated separately from baseline acute presentation (demographic data only) and from the 4–8 week outpatient visit (including echocardiographic data). Of 539 patients enrolled [median age 78 (interquartile range: 72–84) years; 52% female], 397 patients were available for the long‐term follow‐up. Over a median follow‐up time from acute presentation of 5.4 (2.1–7.9) years, 269 (68%) patients died, 128 (47%) from CV and 120 (45%) from non‐CV causes. Incidence rates per 1000 patient‐years were 62 [95% confidence interval (CI) 52–74] for CV and 58 (95% CI 48–69) for non‐CV death. Higher age and coronary artery disease (CAD) were independent predictors of CV death, and anaemia, stroke, kidney disease, and lower body mass index (BMI) and sodium concentrations of non‐CV death. From the stable 4–8 week visit, anaemia, CAD, and tricuspid regurgitation (>3.1 m/s) were independent predictors of CV death, and higher age of non‐CV death. Conclusions In patients with acute decompensated HFpEF, over 5 years of follow‐up, nearly two‐thirds of patients died, half from CV and the other half from non‐CV causes. CAD and tricuspid regurgitation were associated with CV death. Stroke, kidney disease, lower BMI, and lower sodium were associated with non‐CV death. Anaemia and higher age were associated with both outcomes. [Correction added on 24 March 2023, after first online publication: In the first sentence of the Conclusions, ‘two‐thirds’ has been inserted before ‘of patients died...’ in this version.]

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): CHU Rennes, Inserm, LTSI – UMR 1099, F-35000 Rennes, France Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris-Centre Université de Paris, University of Paris onbehalf REMY register Paroxysmal or chronic atrial fibrillation (AF) is frequent in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM),(20%-25% of patients), and is often considered as an important disease turning point. The aim of this study is to determine HCM-phenogroups with different risk of AF-occurrence at 5-year. We applied the Bayesian method to differentiate phenogroups of patients with different risks of AF across a French hospital registry of adult HCM(REMY). Data were prospectively recorded on 5 years follow-up. 1431 HCM patients were recruited, including 1275 analyzed. The population included 412 women. AF-occurred in 167 (11.6%) patients. 3 phenogroups were defined according to their common characteristics. Patients at the highest risk were more often female, with more frequent comorbidities, greatest anteroposterior LA diameter, diastolic dysfunction, outflow-tract obstruction or mitral valve abnormality, and presented higher sPAP or right ventricular dysfunction. These also had a higher risk of all-cause hospitalizations and death. Based on a clustering analysis, 3 phenogroups of HCM according to the risk of AF occurrence can be identified. It can indicate which patients should be more monitored. 3 different AF-risk groups Intermediate risk group n = 524 High-risk group n= 207 Low-risk group n = 544 P Gender = Males (%) 338 (64.5) 103 (49.8) 422 (77.6) <0.001 Age (median [IQR]) 59.00 [47.00, 66.00] 63.00 [54.00, 74.00] 50.00 [38.00, 60.00] <0.001 Stroke (%) 29 (5.5) 44 (21.3) 5 (0.9) <0.001 Right ventricular failure (%) 10 (1.9) 41 (19.8) 0 (0.0) <0.001 None Mitral regurgitation (%) 207 (42.2) 25 (12.6) 416 (81.2) <0.001 Moderate to severe mitral regurgitation (%) 258 (52.6) 143 (72.3) 92 (18) <0.001 Mitral Valve elongation (%) 113 (23.5) 48 (24.9) 62 (12.1) Abnormal insertion of a papillary muscle (%) 13 (2.7) 12 (6.2) 6 (1.2) Mitral valve SAM (%) 214 (40.8) 115 (55.6) 77 (14.2) <0.001 Basal obstruction (%) 196 (37.4) 119 (57.5) 54 (9.9) <0.001 Anteroposterior LA diameter (mm) (median [IQR]) 44.00 [38.00, 49.00] 47.00 [42.00, 51.00] 39.00 [33.00, 43.00] <0.001 Mitral E/e’ Lateral (median [QR]) 10.00 [8.00, 13.53] 15.00 [10.11, 20.00] 7.50 [5.80, 10.00] <0.001 Mitral E/e’ Septal (median [QR]) 15.00 [11.18, 19.55] 18.40 [14.20, 23.50] 10.50 [8.33, 13.88] <0.001 Normal sPAP (%) 354 (82.1) 74 (39.6) 435 (98.0) <0.001 Event AF (%) 80 (15.3) 60 (29.0) 27 (5.0) <0.001 Any cause death (%) 29 (5.5) 36 (17.4) 7 (1.3) <0.001 Any cause hospitalization (%) 174 (33.2) 113 (54.6) 56 (10.3) <0.001 3 different groups on their caracteristics and AF-risk Abstract Figure.

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