Background In hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, progression to acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Severe dysregulated systemic inflammation is the putative mechanism. We hypothesize that early prolonged methylprednisolone (MP) treatment could accelerate disease resolution, decreasing the need for ICU and mortality. Methods We conducted a multicenter, observational study to explore the association between exposure to prolonged, low-dose, MP treatment and need for ICU referral, intubation or death within 28 days (composite primary endpoint) in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to Italian respiratory high-dependency units. Secondary outcomes were invasive MV-free days and changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Results Findings are reported as MP (n=83) vs. control (n=90). The composite primary endpoint was met by 19 vs. 40 [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24-0.72]. Transfer to ICU and need for invasive MV was necessary in 15 vs. 27 (p=0.07) and 14 vs. 26 (p=0.10), respectively. By day 28, the MP group had fewer deaths (6 vs. 21, adjusted HR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.12-0.73) and more days off invasive MV (24.0 ± 9.0 vs. 17.5 ± 12.8; p=0.001). Study treatment was associated with rapid improvement in PaO2:FiO2 and CRP levels. The complication rate was similar for the two groups (p=0.84). Conclusion In patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, early administration of prolonged MP treatment was associated with a significantly lower hazard of death (71%) and decreased ventilator dependence. Treatment was safe and did not impact viral clearance. A large RCT (RECOVERY trial) has been performed that validates these findings. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04323592

Background In hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, progression to acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Severe dysregulated systemic inflammation is the putative mechanism. We hypothesize that early prolonged methylprednisolone (MP) treatment could accelerate disease resolution, decreasing the need for ICU and mortality. Methods We conducted a multicenter, observational study to explore the association between exposure to prolonged, low-dose, MP treatment and need for ICU referral, intubation or death within 28 days (composite primary endpoint) in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to Italian respiratory high-dependency units. Secondary outcomes were invasive MV-free days and changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Results Findings are reported as MP (n=83) vs. control (n=90). The composite primary endpoint was met by 19 vs. 40 [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24-0.72]. Transfer to ICU and need for invasive MV was necessary in 15 vs. 27 (p=0.07) and 14 vs. 26 (p=0.10), respectively. By day 28, the MP group had fewer deaths (6 vs. 21, adjusted HR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.12-0.73) and more days off invasive MV (24.0 plus-or-minus sign 9.0 vs. 17.5 plus-or-minus sign 12.8; p=0.001). Study treatment was associated with rapid improvement in PaO2:FiO2 and CRP levels. The complication rate was similar for the two groups (p=0.84). Conclusion In patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, early administration of prolonged MP treatment was associated with a significantly lower hazard of death (71%) and decreased ventilator dependence. Randomized controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.

No abstract

No abstract

Background Early detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2)‐infected patients who could develop a severe form of COVID‐19 must be considered of great importance to carry out adequate care and optimise the use of limited resources. Aims To use several machine learning classification models to analyse a series of non‐critically ill COVID‐19 patients admitted to a general medicine ward to verify if any clinical variables recorded could predict the clinical outcome. Methods We retrospectively analysed non‐critically ill patients with COVID‐19 admitted to the general ward of the hospital in Pordenone from 1 March 2020 to 30 April 2020. Patients' characteristics were compared based on clinical outcomes. Through several machine learning classification models, some predictors for clinical outcome were detected. Results In the considered period, we analysed 176 consecutive patients admitted: 119 (67.6%) were discharged, 35 (19.9%) dead and 22 (12.5%) were transferred to intensive care unit. The most accurate models were a random forest model (M2) and a conditional inference tree model (M5) (accuracy = 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.64–0.90, for both). For M2, glomerular filtration rate and creatinine were the most accurate predictors for the outcome, followed by age and fraction‐inspired oxygen. For M5, serum sodium, body temperature and arterial pressure of oxygen and inspiratory fraction of oxygen ratio were the most reliable predictors. Conclusions In non‐critically ill COVID‐19 patients admitted to a medical ward, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine and serum sodium were promising predictors for the clinical outcome. Some factors not determined by COVID‐19, such as age or dementia, influence clinical outcomes.