This paper analyzes the impact on market prices of the policies that have been adopted in Brazil to foster electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E), namely wind power. In recent years the Brazilian Government implemented a series of policies that enabled a strong growth of RES-E. Recently more than 14 GW of wind and solar power were contracted. However, as most of the assets are concentrated in specific regions, these policies will induce price differences among areas of the country. In this scope, this paper describes a System Dynamics based model of the Brazilian generation system to evaluate the impact on prices from the deployment of these new sources. The paper describes simulations using realistic data for the Brazilian power system and the results suggest that the difference of prices in the country tend to increase since the Northeast region of the country concentrates most of the wind parks.
The Brazilian Power System is mostly supplied by hydro-generation. In this context there is a strong connection between rainfall regimes and the Electricity Prices in the short term market. This work describes the main features, developments and functioning of a System Dynamics model that simulates the four Brazilian short term electricity submarkets. Based on studies reporting the change in rainfall regimes in Brazil due to Climate Change, we analyze the impacts of these changes in each specific region and in the electricity markets as a whole. The results provide good insights on the impacts of Global Warming in the Brazilian Power System, indicating for instance that the Southeast/Center-West Electricity Submarket is the one that will be most affected by the global issue in terms of rise in the electricity prices.
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