We study in a New Keynesian framework the consequences of adaptive learning for the design of robust monetary policy. Compared to rational expectations, the fact that private sector follows adaptive learning gives the central bank an additional intertemporal trade-off between optimal behavior in the present and in later periods thanks to its ability to manipulate future inflation expectations. We show that adaptive learning imposes a more restrictive constraint on monetary policy robustness to ensure the dynamic stability of the equilibrium than under rational expectations but strengthens the argument in favor of a more aggressive monetary policy when the central bank fears for model misspecifications.
This paper studies how adaptive learning affects the interactions between monetary policy, stock prices and the optimal degree of Rogoff conservatism in a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian agents whose heterogeneous portfolios generate a financial wealth channel of monetary transmission. A positive intergenerational portfolio turnover in the stock market could improve the dual-mandate central bank’s intertemporal trade-off allowed by learning and implies a positive weight on financial stability in the social welfare criterion. For plausible learning gains and turnover rates, a rise in the turnover rate could lead the central bank to reduce the aggressiveness in its policy needed to manage private beliefs if the learning gain is high enough. Both the distortion due to learning and the central bank’s lack of concern for financial stability could lead the government to appoint a liberal central banker, i.e. less conservative than society. A rise in the turnover rate implies a higher (lower) degree of liberalism for low (high) learning gains.
Cet article est consacré à l’analyse des effets de deux dispositifs d’ateliers d’écriture sur les compétences relatives à l’encodage des mots de 127 élèves issus de vingt-deux classes de l’enseignement fondamental belge. Les analyses statistiques menées ont permis de mettre en évidence un effet positif significatif sur l’ensemble des indicateurs observés (nombre de mots produits, concept de phrase, segmentation, nature des mots, valeur sonore des lettres et correspondances graphophonologiques). Les résultats font également apparaitre une réduction des écarts entre les élèves sur certains de ces indicateurs.
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