Catastrophic collapses of the flanks of stratovolcanoes constitute a major hazard threatening numerous lives in many countries. Although many such collapses occurred following the ascent of magma to the surface, many are not associated with magmatic reawakening but are triggered by a combination of forcing agents such as pore-fluid pressurization and/or mechanical weakening of the volcanic edifice often located above a low-strength detachment plane. The volume of altered rock available for collapse, the dynamics of the hydrothermal fluid reservoir and the geometry of incipient collapse failure planes are key parameters for edifice stability analysis and modelling that remain essentially hidden to current volcano monitoring techniques. Here we derive a high-resolution, three-dimensional electrical conductivity model of the La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano from extensive electrical tomography data. We identify several highly conductive regions in the lava dome that are associated to fluid saturated host-rock and preferential flow of highly acid hot fluids within the dome. We interpret this model together with the existing wealth of geological and geochemical data on the volcano to demonstrate the influence of the hydrothermal system dynamics on the hazards associated to collapse-prone altered volcanic edifices.

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Probabilistic inversion methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are well suited to quantify parameter and model uncertainty of nonlinear inverse problems. Yet, application of such methods to CPU-intensive forward models can be a daunting task, particularly if the parameter space is high dimensional. Here, we present a two-dimensional (2D) pixel-based MCMC inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) data. Using synthetic data, we investigate how model parameter uncertainty depends on model structure constraints using different norms of the likelihood function and the model constraints, and study the added benefits of joint inversion of EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. Our results demonstrate that model structure constraints are a necessity to stabilize the MCMC inversion results of a highly-discretized model. These constraints decrease model parameter uncertainty and facilitate model interpretation. A drawback is that these constraints may lead to posterior distributions that do not fully include the true underlying model, because some of its features exhibit a low sensitivity to the EM data, and hence are difficult to resolve. This problem can be partly mitigated if the plane-wave EM data is augmented with ERT observations. The hierarchical Bayesian inverse formulation introduced and used herein is able to successfully recover the probabilistic properties of the measurement data errors and a model regularization weight. Application of the proposed inversion methodology to field data from an aquifer demonstrates that the posterior mean model realization is very similar to that derived from a deterministic inversion with similar model constraints.

Muon imaging has recently emerged as a powerful method to complement standard geophysical tools in the understanding of the Earth's subsurface. Muon measurements yield a “radiography” of the average density along the muon path, allowing to image large volumes of a geological body from a single observation point. Here we jointly invert muon data from three simultaneous telescope acquisitions together with gravity data to estimate the three‐dimensional density structure of the La Soufrière de Guadeloupe lava dome. Our unique data set allows us to achieve an unprecedented spatial resolution with this novel technique. The retrieved density model reveals an extensive, low‐density anomaly where the most active part of the volcanic hydrothermal system is located, supporting previous studies that indicate this region as the most likely to be involved in a partial edifice collapse.

Volcanoes are inherently unstable structures that are built haphazardly, in both space and time, from the products of successive effusive and explosive eruptions and endogenous growth. These materials have highly variable physical and mechanical properties (Heap & Violay, 2021) and often form oversteepened and unstable slopes. As a result, volcano deformation (such as volcano spreading; Borgia et al., 2000) and mass wasting events (such as debris avalanches resulting from partial flank collapse, lahars, and rockfalls;

[1] While the seismic effects of wave-induced fluid flow due to mesoscopic heterogeneities have been studied for several decades, the role played by these types of heterogeneities on seismoelectric phenomena is largely unexplored. To address this issue, we have developed a novel methodological framework which allows for the coupling of wave-induced fluid flow, as inferred through numerical oscillatory compressibility tests, with the pertinent seismoelectric conversion mechanisms. Simulating the corresponding response of a water-saturated sandstone sample containing mesoscopic fractures, we demonstrate for the first time that these kinds of heterogeneities can produce measurable seismoelectric signals under typical laboratory conditions. Given that this phenomenon is sensitive to key hydraulic and mechanical properties, we expect that the results of this pilot study will stimulate further exploration on this topic in several domains of the Earth, environmental, and engineering sciences. Citation: Jougnot, D., J. G. Rubino, M. Rosas Carbajal, N. Linde, and K. Holliger (2013), Seismoelectric effects due to mesoscopic heterogeneities, Geophys.

Over the past 9,150 years, at least 9 flank collapses have been identified in the history of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano. On account of the volcano’s current unrest, the possibility of such a flank collapse should not be dismissed in assessing hazards for future eruptive magmatic as well as non-magmatic scenarios. We combine morphological and geophysical data to identify seven unstable structures (volumes ranging from 1 × 106 m3 to 100 × 106 m3), including one that has a volume compatible with the last recorded flank collapse in 1530 CE. We model their dynamics and emplacement with the SHALTOP numerical model and a simple Coulomb friction law. The best-fit friction coefficient to reproduce the 1530 CE event is tan(7°) = 0.13, suggesting the transformation of the debris avalanche into a debris flow, which is confirmed by the texture of mapped deposits. Various friction angles are tested to investigate less water-rich and less mobile avalanches. The most densely populated areas of Saint-Claude and Basse-Terre, and an area of Gourbeyre south of the Palmiste ridge, are primarily exposed in the case of the more voluminous and mobile flank collapse scenarios considered. However, topography has a prominent role in controlling flow dynamics, with barrier effects and multiple channels. Classical mobility indicators, such as the Heim’s ratio, are thus not adequate for a comprehensive hazard analysis.

The collapse of a volcanic flank can be destructive and deadly. Hydrothermal alteration is common to volcanoes worldwide and is thought to promote volcano instability by decreasing rock strength. However, some laboratory studies have shown that not all alteration reduces rock strength. Our new laboratory data for altered rhyodacites from Chaos Crags (Lassen volcanic center, California, USA) show that pore- and crack-filling mineral precipitation can reduce porosity and permeability and increase strength, Young’s modulus, and cohesion. A significant reduction in permeability, by as much as four orders of magnitude, will inhibit fluid circulation and create zones of high pore fluid pressure. We explored the consequences of pore fluid pressurization on volcano stability using large-scale numerical modeling. Upscaled physical and mechanical properties for hydrothermally altered rocks were used as input parameters in our modeling. Results show that a high-pore-pressure zone within a volcano increases volcano deformation and that increasing the size of this zone increases the observed deformation. Hydrothermal alteration associated with mineral precipitation, and increases to rock strength, can therefore promote pore pressurization and volcano deformation, increasing the likelihood of volcano spreading, flank collapses, and phreatic/phreatomagmatic explosions. We conclude that porosity-decreasing alteration, explored here, and porosity-increasing alteration can both promote volcano instability and collapse, but by different mechanisms. Hydrothermal alteration should therefore be monitored at volcanoes worldwide and incorporated into hazard assessments.