Quantifying phenotypic evolutionary rates and their variation across phylogenetic trees is a major issue in evolutionary biology. A number of phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) currently perform such task. However, available PCMs can locate rate shifts pertaining to entire portions of the phylogeny, but not those expected to occur at the level of individual species and lineages, such as with the idea that body size changes more rapidly in insular vertebrates. Still, most PCMs cannot deal with fossil phylogenies, albeit fossils provide highly desirable information when it comes to understand trait variation and evolution. We developed a PCM based on phylogenetic ridge regression, which we named RRphylo, which assigns an evolutionary rate to each branch of the phylogeny, and is designed to locate rate shifts relating to entire clades, as well as to unrelated tree tips. We tested RRphylo on simulated trees and data to assess its performance under different conditions. Then, we repeated its application with two real case scenarios, the evolution of flight in ornithodirans and mammals and body size evolution in insular mammals, which are usually subsumed to evolve under different range regimes than terrestrial and continental species respectively. RRphylo performs well across all different conditions. The simulation experiments demonstrated it has low Type I and Type II error rate. We found significant evidence that flight accelerates the rate of body size evolution in vertebrates, and that the acquisition of very large body size slows down the rate. Still, insular mammals body size evolution is not faster than in continental species. RRphylo is a new PCM ideal to estimate variation and shift in the rate of phenotypic evolution with fossil data. In addition to testing evolutionary rate variation, it is open to a variety of further questions, such as the evolution of rates in time, the estimation of ancestral states and the estimation of phenotypic trends over time.

Morphological convergence is an intensely studied macroevolutionary phenomenon. It refers to the morphological resemblance between phylogenetically distant taxa. Currently available methods to explore evolutionary convergence either: rely on the analysis of the phenotypic resemblance between sister clades as compared to their ancestor, fit different evolutionary regimes to different parts of the tree to see whether the same regime explains phenotypic evolution in phylogenetically distant clades, or assess deviations from the congruence between phylogenetic and phenotypic distances. We introduce a new test for morphological convergence working directly with non-ultrametric (i.e. paleontological) as well as ultrametric phylogenies and multivariate data. The method (developed as the function search.conv within the R package RRphylo) tests whether unrelated clades are morphologically more similar to each other than expected by their phylogenetic distance. It additionally permits using known phenotypes as the most recent common ancestors of clades, taking full advantage of fossil information. We assessed the power of search.conv and the incidence of false positives by means of simulations, and then applied it to three well-known and long-discussed cases of (purported) morphological convergence: the evolution of grazing adaptation in the mandible of ungulates with high-crowned molars, the evolution of mandibular shape in sabertooth cats, and the evolution of discrete ecomorphs among anoles of Caribbean islands. The search.conv method was found to be powerful, correctly identifying simulated cases of convergent morphological evolution in 95% of the cases. Type I error rate is as low as 4–6%. We found search.conv is some three orders of magnitude faster than a competing method for testing convergence.

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Past extinctions of Homo species coincided with increased vulnerability to climatic change. One Earth, 3(4) pp. 480-490.For guidance on citations see FAQs.

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age-dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age-dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on agedependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern.

A distinctive trait in primate evolution is the expansion in brain mass. The potential drivers of this trend and how and whether encephalization influenced diversification dynamics in this group are hotly debated. We assembled a phylogeny accounting for 317 primate species, including both extant and extinct taxa, to identify macroevolutionary trends in brain mass evolution. Our findings show that Primates as a whole follow a macroevolutionary trend for an increase in body mass, relative brain mass and speciation rate over time. Although the trend for increased encephalization (brain mass) applies to all Primates, hominins stand out for their distinctly higher rates. Within hominins, this unique trend applies linearly over time and starts with Australopithecus africanus. The increases in both speciation rate and encephalization begin in the Oligocene, suggesting the two variables are causally associated. The substitution of early, stem Primates belonging to plesiadapiforms with crown Primates seems to be responsible for these macroevolutionary trends. However, our findings also suggest that cognitive capacities favoured speciation in hominins.

Large brains are a defining feature of primates, as is a clear allometric trend between body mass and brain size. However, important questions on the macroevolution of brain shape in primates remain unanswered. Here we address two: (i), does the relationship between the brain size and its shape follow allometric trends and (ii), is this relationship consistent over evolutionary time? We employ three-dimensional geometric morphometrics and phylogenetic comparative methods to answer these questions, based on a large sample representing 151 species and most primate families. We found two distinct trends regarding the relationship between brain shape and brain size. Hominoidea and Cercopithecinae showed significant evolutionary allometry, whereas no allometric trends were discernible for Strepsirrhini, Colobinae or Platyrrhini. Furthermore, we found that in the taxa characterized by significant allometry, brain shape evolution accelerated, whereas for taxa in which such allometry was absent, the evolution of brain shape decelerated. We conclude that although primates in general are typically described as large-brained, strong allometric effects on brain shape are largely confined to the order's representatives that display more complex behavioural repertoires.